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Brexit Fever Spreads: Austria and Holland are Next Up to Leave EU

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Europe’s got a fever, and the only prescription is…more referendums.

Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk consultancy, shared this map today after analyzing EU countries for the potential of further Brexit-like events:

Brexit fever spreads

It’s not the type of quantitative data we usually seek, but in this case we’ll make an exception – Eurasia Group, headed by Ian Bremmer, is the largest political consultancy in the world.

Austrout or Nexit?

According to Eurasia’s analysis, the two countries that are most likely to have referendums on EU membership are Austria and The Netherlands.

It’s been 20 years since Austria held the referendum to initially join the EU. However, according to a pre-Brexit poll, nearly 40% of the population now wants to hold a referendum to leave.

“Europe can collapse because of the refugee crisis and uncontrolled immigration,” says Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian Foreign Minister. “Only by a speedy transformation can we prevent a wildfire. The EU needs to be rearranged. Everyone, who is for Europe, also needs to be a force in making the necessary changes.”

In other words, there must be fast, sweeping changes to their arrangement or they are out. Unfortunately, making fast, sweeping decisions is not what the European Union is known for.

The Dutch share a similar sentiment.

Despite Netherlands being a founding member of the EU and currently holding the EU presidency, a June poll showed 54% of people want a referendum to leave. So far, in a theoretical vote, the independence camp is leading with 48% of the vote, while 45% would seek to remain in the EU.

What’s Next?

While Eurasia Group sees Austria and the Netherlands as the frontrunners for the next referendum vote, there are many other dominoes that could fall. France, Italy, and Sweden are among the key countries that have strong Eurosceptic movements.

If a Brexit result was a tinderbox that got the fire going, then any major developments in these countries could be the gasoline. Another “exit” event would make clear to everyone that there is an inevitability of failure around the Union.

Brexit negotiations and populist dissent will be in the news for some time, and markets will be volatile, extremely sensitive, and over-reactive as a result.

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Mapped: The World’s Least Affordable Housing Markets in 2024

See which housing markets are considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’ according to their median price-to-income ratio.

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The World’s Least Affordable Housing Markets in 2024

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Many cities around the world have become very expensive to buy a home in, but which ones are the absolute most unattainable?

In this graphic, we highlight a number of housing markets that are deemed to be “impossibly unaffordable” in 2024, ranked by their median price-to-income ratio.

This data comes from the Demographia International Housing Affordability Report, which is produced by the Chapman University Center for Demographics and Policy.

Data and Key Takeaway

The median price-to-income ratio compares median house price to median household income within each market. A higher ratio (higher prices relative to incomes) means a city is less affordable.

See the following table for all of the data we used to create this graphic. Note that this analysis covers 94 markets across eight countries: Australia, Canada, China, Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

RankMetropolitan MarketCountryMedian price-to-income
ratio
1Hong Kong (SAR)๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China16.7
2Sydney๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia13.8
3Vancouver๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada12.3
4San Jose๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.11.9
5Los Angeles๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.10.9
6Honolulu๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.10.5
7Melbourne๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia9.8
8San Francisco๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.9.7
9Adelaide๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia9.7
10San Diego๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.9.5
11Toronto๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada9.3
12Auckland๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand8.2

According to the Demographia report, cities with a median price-to-income ratio of over 9.0 are considered โ€œimpossibly unaffordableโ€.

We can see that the top city in this ranking, Hong Kong, has a ratio of 16.7. This means that the median price of a home is 16.7 times greater than the median income.

Which Cities are More Affordable?

On the flipside, here are the top 12 most affordable cities that were analyzed in the Demographia report.

RankMetropolitan MarketCountryMedian price-to-income
ratio
1Pittsburgh๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.1
2Rochester๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.4
2St. Louis๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.4
4Cleveland๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.5
5Edmonton๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada3.6
5Buffalo๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.6
5Detroit๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.6
5Oklahoma City๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.6
9Cincinnati๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.7
9Louisville๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.3.7
11Singapore๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore3.8
12Blackpool & Lancashire๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง U.K.3.9

Cities with a median price-to-income ratio of less than 3.0 are considered “affordable”, while those between 3.1 and 4.0 are considered “moderately unaffordable”.

See More Real Estate Content From Visual Capitalist

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Ranked: The Most Valuable Housing Markets in America.

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