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Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]

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Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]

Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]

The Chart of the Week is a weekly feature in Visual Capitalist on Fridays.

The folks at Société Générale, France’s third largest bank, are avid birdwatchers.

When they are not busy getting hawked by regulators for scandals, they are trying to spot the next black swan on the horizon that could have a profound negative or positive impact on the markets.

By definition, black swans are not seen by everyone. Nassim Taleb, the developer of the Black Swan Theory, uses the “turkey analogy” to describe this: although it is a surprise to the turkey that it is eaten for Thanksgiving dinner after days of positive data (being fed), it is not a surprise to the farmer nor the butcher.

In other words, don’t be the turkey.

That’s why every analyst, including SocGen, tries their best to predict which black swans are on the horizon. The most recent quarterly report sees eight potential black swans: six with potential downside, and two with potential upside:

Downside risks and their probability:

  • 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU
  • 40% – Greece defaults on debt and then (20%) Greece leaves the EU
  • 30% – China hard lands (growth of <5%)
  • 25% – US consumer saves more
  • 10% – Fed behind the dots

Upside risks and their probability:

  • 15% – Higher-than-expected price multipliers
  • 10% – Fast track reform, particularly in Euro Area

The ratio of negative to positive black swans remains the same as their report from the previous quarter, but the probabilities have increased significantly: The chance of a Brexit has gone from 10% to 45%, while a Greek default goes from not existing on chart to a 40% probability.

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Markets

The World’s Biggest Fashion Companies by Market Cap

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) is the industry’s biggest player by a wide margin.

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Bubble chart showing the world’s biggest fashion companies by market cap.

The World’s Biggest Fashion Companies by Market Cap

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Fashion is one of the largest industries globally, accounting for 2% of the global gross domestic product (GDP).

In this graphic, we use data from CompaniesMarketCap to showcase the world’s 12 largest publicly traded fashion companies, ranked by market capitalization as of Jan. 31, 2024.

LVMH Reigns Supreme

European countries dominate the list of the biggest fashion companies, with six in total. The U.S. boasts four companies, while Japan and Canada each have one.

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) is the industry’s biggest player by a wide margin. The company boasts an extensive portfolio of luxury brands spanning fashion, cosmetics, and liquor, including Marc Jacobs, Givenchy, Fendi, and Dior, the latter of which holds a 41% ownership stake in the global luxury goods company.

RankCountryNameMarket Cap (USD)
1🇫🇷 FranceLVMH421,600,000,000
2🇺🇸 United StatesNike153,830,000,000
3🇫🇷 FranceDior145,861,000,000
4🇪🇸 SpainInditex134,042,000,000
5🇺🇸 United StatesTJX Companies108,167,000,000
6🇯🇵 JapanFast Retailing81,489,917,976
7🇺🇸 United StatesCintas61,285,867,520
8🇨🇦 Canadalululemon57,267,998,720
9🇫🇷 FranceKering50,900,207,000
10🇺🇸 United StatesRoss Stores47,227,502,592
11🇩🇪 GermanyAdidas32,535,078,209
12🇸🇪 SwedenH&M25,564,163,571

As a result of the success of the company, in 2024, LVMH chairman Bernard Arnault overtook Elon Musk as the richest person in the world.

In second place, Nike generated 68% of its revenue in 2023 from footwear. One of the company’s most popular brands, the Jordan Brand, generates around $5 billion in revenue per year.

The list also includes less-known names like Inditex, a corporate entity that owns Zara, as well as several other brands, and Fast Retailing, a Japanese holding company that owns Uniqlo, Theory, and Helmut Lang.

According to McKinsey & Company, the fashion industry is expected to experience modest growth of 2% to 4% in 2024, compared to 5% to 7% in 2023, attributed to subdued economic growth and weakened consumer confidence. The luxury segment is projected to contribute the largest share of economic profit.

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