Markets
Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]
Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]
The Chart of the Week is a weekly feature in Visual Capitalist on Fridays.
The folks at Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale, France’s third largest bank, are avid birdwatchers.
When they are not busy getting hawked by regulators for scandals, they are trying to spot the next black swan on the horizon that could have a profound negative or positive impact on the markets.
By definition, black swans are not seen by everyone. Nassim Taleb, the developer of the Black Swan Theory, uses the “turkey analogy” to describe this: although it is a surprise to the turkey that it is eaten for Thanksgiving dinner after days of positive data (being fed), it is not a surprise to the farmer nor the butcher.
In other words, don’t be the turkey.
That’s why every analyst, including SocGen, tries their best to predict which black swans are on the horizon. The most recent quarterly report sees eight potential black swans: six with potential downside, and two with potential upside:
Downside risks and their probability:
- 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU
- 40% – Greece defaults on debt and then (20%) Greece leaves the EU
- 30% – China hard lands (growth of <5%)
- 25% – US consumer saves more
- 10% – Fed behind the dots
Upside risks and their probability:
- 15% – Higher-than-expected price multipliers
- 10% – Fast track reform, particularly in Euro Area
The ratio of negative to positive black swans remains the same as their report from the previous quarter, but the probabilities have increased significantly: The chance of a Brexit has gone from 10% to 45%, while a Greek default goes from not existing on chart to a 40% probability.
Markets
Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country
Global house prices were resilient in 2022, rising 6%. We compare nominal and real price growth by country as interest rates surged.

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country
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Global housing prices rose an average of 6% annually, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.
In real terms that take inflation into account, prices actually fell 2% for the first decline in 12 years. Despite a surge in interest rates and mortgage costs, housing markets were noticeably stable. Real prices remain 7% above pre-pandemic levels.
In this graphic, we show the change in residential property prices with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The Growth in House Prices, Ranked
The following dataset from the BIS covers nominal and real house price growth across 58 countries and regions as of the fourth quarter of 2022:
Price Growth Rank | Country / Region | Nominal Year-over-Year Change (%) | Real Year-over-Year Change (%) |
---|---|---|---|
1 | ๐น๐ท Tรผrkiye | 167.9 | 51.0 |
2 | ๐ท๐ธ Serbia | 23.1 | 7.0 |
3 | ๐ท๐บ Russia | 23.1 | 9.7 |
4 | ๐ฒ๐ฐ North Macedonia | 20.6 | 1.0 |
5 | ๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland | 20.3 | 9.9 |
6 | ๐ญ๐ท Croatia | 17.3 | 3.6 |
7 | ๐ช๐ช Estonia | 16.9 | -3.0 |
8 | ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | 16.8 | 11.0 |
9 | ๐ญ๐บ Hungary | 16.5 | -5.1 |
10 | ๐ฑ๐น Lithuania | 16.0 | -5.5 |
11 | ๐ธ๐ฎ Slovenia | 15.4 | 4.2 |
12 | ๐ง๐ฌ Bulgaria | 13.4 | -3.2 |
13 | ๐ฌ๐ท Greece | 12.2 | 3.7 |
14 | ๐ต๐น Portugal | 11.3 | 1.3 |
15 | ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | 10.0 | -0.7 |
16 | ๐ธ๐ฐ Slovak Republic | 9.7 | -4.8 |
17 | ๐ฆ๐ช United Arab Emirates | 9.6 | 2.9 |
18 | ๐ต๐ฑ Poland | 9.3 | -6.9 |
19 | ๐ฑ๐ป Latvia | 9.1 | -10.2 |
20 | ๐ธ๐ฌ Singapore | 8.6 | 1.9 |
21 | ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | 8.6 | -0.2 |
22 | ๐จ๐ฑ Chile | 8.2 | -3.0 |
23 | ๐ฏ๐ต Japan | 7.9 | 3.9 |
24 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico | 7.9 | -0.1 |
25 | ๐ต๐ญ Philippines | 7.7 | -0.2 |
26 | ๐บ๐ธ United States | 7.1 | 0.0 |
27 | ๐จ๐ฟ Czechia | 6.9 | -7.6 |
28 | ๐ท๐ด Romania | 6.7 | -7.5 |
29 | ๐ฒ๐น Malta | 6.3 | -0.7 |
30 | ๐จ๐พ Cyprus | 6.3 | -2.9 |
31 | ๐จ๐ด Colombia | 6.3 | -5.6 |
32 | ๐ฑ๐บ Luxembourg | 5.6 | -0.5 |
33 | ๐ช๐ธ Spain | 5.5 | -1.1 |
34 | ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | 5.4 | 2.4 |
35 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | 5.4 | -5.3 |
36 | ๐ฆ๐น Austria | 5.2 | -4.8 |
37 | ๐ซ๐ท France | 4.8 | -1.2 |
38 | ๐ง๐ช Belgium | 4.7 | -5.7 |
39 | ๐น๐ญ Thailand | 4.7 | -1.1 |
40 | ๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africa | 3.1 | -4.0 |
41 | ๐ฎ๐ณ India | 2.8 | -3.1 |
42 | ๐ฎ๐น Italy | 2.8 | -8.0 |
43 | ๐ณ๐ด Norway | 2.6 | -3.8 |
44 | ๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 2.0 | -3.4 |
45 | ๐ต๐ช Peru | 1.5 | -6.3 |
46 | ๐ฒ๐พ Malaysia | 1.2 | -2.6 |
47 | ๐ฐ๐ท South Korea | -0.1 | -5.0 |
48 | ๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco | -0.1 | -7.7 |
49 | ๐ง๐ท Brazil | -0.1 | -5.8 |
50 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | -2.3 | -10.2 |
51 | ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark | -2.4 | -10.6 |
52 | ๐ฆ๐บ Australia | -3.2 | -10.2 |
53 | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany | -3.6 | -12.1 |
54 | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | -3.7 | -13.7 |
55 | ๐จ๐ณ China | -3.7 | -5.4 |
56 | ๐จ๐ฆ Canada | -3.8 | -9.8 |
57 | ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand | -10.4 | -16.5 |
58 | ๐ญ๐ฐ Hong Kong SAR | -13.5 | -15.1 |
Tรผrkiyeโs property prices jumped the highest globally, at nearly 168% amid soaring inflation.
Real estate demand has increased alongside declining interest rates. The government drastically cut interest rates from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% to support a weakening economy.
Many European countries saw some of the highest price growth in nominal terms. A strong labor market and low interest rates pushed up prices, even as mortgage rates broadly doubled across the continent. For real price growth, most countries were in negative territoryโnotably Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.
Nominal U.S. housing prices grew just over 7%, while real price growth halted to 0%. Prices have remained elevated given the stubbornly low supply of inventory. In fact, residential prices remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels.
How Do Interest Rates Impact Property Markets?
Global house prices boomed during the pandemic as central banks cut interest rates to prop up economies.
Now, rates have returned to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. On average, rates have increased four percentage points in many major economies. Roughly three-quarters of the countries in the BIS dataset witnessed negative year-over-year real house price growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.
Interest rates have a large impact on property prices. Cross-country evidence shows that for every one percentage point increase in real interest rates, the growth rate of housing prices tends to fall by about two percentage points.
When Will Housing Prices Fall?
The rise in U.S. interest rates has been counteracted by homeowners being reluctant to sell so they can keep their low mortgage rates. As a result, it is keeping inventory low and prices high. Homeowners canโt sell and keep their low mortgage rates unless they meet strict conditions on a new property.
Additionally, several other factors impact price dynamics. Construction costs, income growth, labor shortages, and population growth all play a role.
With a strong labor market continuing through 2023, stable incomes may help stave off prices from falling. On the other hand, buyers with floating-rate mortgages face steeper costs and may be unable to afford new rates. This could increase housing supply in the market, potentially leading to lower prices.
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