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Black Swan Events: Short-term Crisis, Long-term Opportunity

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This Markets in a Minute chart is available as a poster.

Black Swan Events and time to recovery

This Markets in a Minute chart is available as a poster.

Black Swans: Short-term Crisis, Long-term Opportunity

Few investors could have predicted that a viral outbreak would end the longest-running bull market in U.S. history. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed stocks far into bear market territory. From its peak on February 19th, the S&P 500 has fallen almost 30%.

While this volatility can cause investors to panic, it’s helpful to keep a long-term perspective. Black swan events, which are defined as rare and unexpected events with severe consequences, have come and gone throughout history.

In today’s Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we explore the sell-off size and recovery length for some of these events.

Wars, Viruses, and Excessive Valuations

With sell-offs ranging from -5% to -50%, black swan events have all impacted the S&P 500 differently. Here’s a look at select events over the last half-century:

EventStart of Sell-off/Previous PeakSize of Sell-offDuration of Sell-off (Trading Days)Duration of Recovery (Trading Days)
Israel Arab War/Oil EmbargoOctober 29, 1973-17.1%271475
Iranian Hostage CrisisOctober 5, 1979-10.2%2451
Black MondayOctober 13, 1987-28.5%5398
First Gulf WarJanuary 1, 1991-5.7%68
9/11 AttacksSeptember 10, 2001-11.6%615
SARSJanuary 14, 2003-14.1%3940
Global Financial CrisisOctober 9, 2007-56.8%3561022
Intervention in LibyaFebruary 18, 2011-6.4%1829
Brexit VoteJune 8, 2016-5.6%149
COVID-19*February 19, 2020-29.5%19N/A (ongoing)

* Figure as of market close on March 18, 2020. The sell-off measures from the market high to the market low.

While the declines can be severe, most have been short-lived. Markets typically returned to previous peak levels in no more than a couple of months. The Oil Embargo, Black Monday, and the Global Financial Crisis are notable outliers, with the recovery spanning a year or more.

After Black Monday, the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its readiness to provide liquidity, and the market recovered in about 400 trading days. Both the 1973 Oil Embargo and 2007 Global Financial Crisis led to U.S. recessions, lengthening the recovery over multiple years.

COVID-19: How Long Will it Last?

It’s difficult to predict how long COVID-19 will impact markets, as its societal and financial disruption is unprecedented. In fact, the S&P 500 reached a bear market in just 16 days, the fastest time period on record.

Time for bear market to occur

Some Wall Street strategists believe that the market will only begin to recover when COVID-19’s daily infection rate peaks. In the meantime, governments have begun announcing rate cuts and fiscal stimulus in order to help stabilize the economy.

Considering the high levels of uncertainty, what should investors do?

Buy on Fear, Sell on Greed?

Legendary investor Warren Buffet is a big proponent of this strategy. When others are greedy—typically when prices are boiling over—assets may be overpriced. On the flipside, there may be good buying opportunities when others are fearful.

Most importantly, investors need to remain disciplined with their investment process throughout the volatility. History has shown that markets will eventually recover, and may reward patient investors.

Note: This post originally came from our Advisor Channel, a partnership with New York Life Investments that aims to create a go-to resource for financial advisors and their clients to navigate market trends.

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Markets

The Most Popular TV Brands in the U.S.

Korean brands dominate the U.S. TV market.

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A stacked bar chart ranking the most popular TV brands in the U.S.

The Most Popular TV Brands in the U.S.

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Every year, over 40 million TVs are sold in the U.S., making the device a flagship technology in many American homes.

In this graphic, we illustrate the most popular TV brands in the U.S. based on a 2023 Statista survey of over 8,000 American adults. Respondents were asked, ‘What brand is your main TV?’

Korean Brands Dominate the U.S. TV Market

Samsung and LG combined account for 52% of the TV market share. Interestingly, the two firms have a partnership in place, with LG supplying OLED TV panels to Samsung since 2023.

TV BrandCountry% of Respondents
Samsung🇰🇷 South Korea33
LG🇰🇷 South Korea19
Vizio🇺🇸 U.S.11
Sony🇯🇵 Japan7
Hisense🇨🇳 China5
TCL🇨🇳 China5
Philips🇳🇱 Netherlands3
Insignia🇺🇸 U.S.2
Sanyo🇯🇵 Japan2
Toshiba🇯🇵 Japan2
Sharp🇯🇵 Japan1
Other or don't know--9

Vizio, a California-based company, holds the third position, but its TVs aren’t manufactured in the United States. Rather, they are produced by Taiwanese companies AmTran Technology and Foxconn, the latter being a major manufacturer of the iPhone.

Further down the ranking is Insignia, owned by U.S. retailer Best Buy. While it’s uncertain who produces Insignia TVs, some speculate they’re made by China’s Hisense.

Despite holding the largest market share, South Korea ranks behind Japan in terms of the number of companies among the top brands. Japan boasts four brands on our list, with Sony ranked 4th overall, capturing 7% of the responses.

Growing Market

The U.S. is witnessing a surge in demand for high-definition televisions, driven by consumers’ desire for a more immersive home viewing experience.

Globally, the U.S. leads in revenue generation, with the American TV market projected to generate $18.2 billion in revenue in 2024.

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