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The Ballooning Valuations In Private Equity Deals

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ballooning valuations in private equity deals

The Briefing

  • Private equity (PE) deal valuations by EV/EBITDA are increasingly rich and are hitting higher double-digit figures
  • 2021 is expected to be another home run year for PE, with 20% of buyouts estimated to be priced above 20x EV/EBITDA

The Ballooning Valuations In Private Equity Deals

Private equity is getting increasingly expensive. As a result, the pricing of an average deal today, by the EV/EBITDA metric, is expected to be at a premium relative to the last decade.

The EV/EBIDTA ratio breaks down into two parts:

  • Enterprise Value (EV): Adding debt to market capitalization, while subtracting cash gives us the enterprise value. This gives us the total value of a company.
  • EBITDA: Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization or, EBITDA, provides a popular way to look at earnings. By removing these expenses, we obtain a clearer look at operating performance.

Overall, EV/EBITDA shows the relationship between a company’s total value and its earnings, and is often seen as the price-to-earnings ratio’s sophisticated sibling, used to view companies the way acquirers would.

However, the EV component is not necessarily intuitive, so let’s expand a little on it:

Why is Debt Added Back to Enterprise Value?

To acquire a company completely, one must pay out all stakeholders in order to reach the final cost of the acquisition. This includes the stock (equity holders) and the debt holders, subsequently, adding back the market value debt to market cap does just this.

Why is Cash Subtracted from Enterprise Value?

Subtracting cash can also be seen as arriving at net debt. That is, the remaining debt after using the cash and equivalents on a company’s balance sheet to pay it down. In other words, if cash exceeds debt, enterprise value shrinks, and the cost of acquiring the company becomes cheaper. Whereas if debt exceeds cash, the acquirer would have to pay off more debt holders, thus making the acquisition more expensive.

What’s Driving Higher Valuations in Private Equity?

1. The Link Between All Equities

First, the public markets are often used as a starting point to derive valuations for deals. Generally, companies with similar business models and operations should be assigned similar valuation multiples. For instance, Lowes and Home Depot, or alternatively, Pepsi and Coca-Cola. Therefore, a company under consideration in private equity often has peers trading publicly.

Furthermore, the average multiple assigned to businesses in the stock market fluctuates through peaks and troughs. Today, they’re trading at a premium to historic averages, a result of a rallying prices and elevated investor risk appetite. Naturally, these public valuations spills over into the private equity space.

2. A World of Cheap Money

Second, asset markets move based on relativity and opportunity cost. A low interest rate environment pairing with the trillions in money printing is placing debt securities at unattractive levels. Hence, low rates of return on debt is resulting in money moving elsewhere.

For private equity though, debt is considered fuel. And in this industry firms use high levels of leverage to acquire companies. For this reason, low rates and cheap debt are a private equity manager’s dream.

But what’s true for one private equity firm can be true for all. Because access to cheap debt means more money chasing deals, and this heightened level of competition is reflecting in the higher multiples and expensive deals today.

Where does this data come from?

Source: PitchBook
Notes: Data is as of November, 2020

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Datastream

Visualizing the World’s Population by Age Group

33% of the world’s population is under 20, making young people the largest demographic worldwide. But this might not be the case forever.

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World's Age Distribution

The Briefing

  • According to the United Nations, the global median age has increased by 7 years since 1950, from 24 to 31
  • That said, young people accounted for 33% of the global population in 2020, making them the largest demographic across the globe

Visualizing the World’s Population, By Age Group

An aging population can have far-reaching consequences on a country’s economy.

With this in mind, today’s graphic looks at the age composition of the global population in 2020, based on the latest figures from the United Nations.

The Global Age Composition

Our global population is getting older, largely because of increasing life expectancies and declining birth rates.

In 2020, more than 147 million people around the world were between the ages of 80-99, accounting for 1.9% of the global population.

Age GroupNumber of People (2020)% of Global Population
<20 years2.6 billion33.2%
20-39 years2.3 billion29.9%
40-59 years1.8 billion23.1%
60-79 years918 million11.8%
80-99 years147 million1.9%
100+ years0.6 million0.01%

While that percentage may seem small, that particular demographic accounted for merely 0.05% of the population in 1950, meaning our world has a notably higher percentage of older people than it did 70 years ago.

Why is this significant? An aging population typically means a declining workforce and an increase of people looking to cash in their pensions. This can put pressure on the working class if taxes are raised.

Of course, an aging population can have positive impacts on society as well. For instance, elderly citizens tend to volunteer more than other age groups. And research has shown that older communities have lower crime rates. By 2050, the crime rate in Australia expected to drop by 16% as the country’s population gets older.

To mitigate some of the risks associated with a rapidly aging population, certain countries are working towards more sustainable pension systems, to support aging citizens while taking the stress off the working population.

» Like this? Then you might like this article on The World’s Youngest and Oldest Countries

Where does this data come from?

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 (accessed Feb 12, 2021)

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Euro 2020: Qualified Nations and Past Winners

After a year-long delay, the 2020 UEFA European Championship is back with new rules, reduced spectators, and fierce competition.

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Euro 2020 past winners

The Briefing

  • The 2020 UEFA European Football Championship will kick off Friday, June 11th 2021 after a year-long delay due to COVID-19
  • The tournament will take place across 11 host cities and feature new rules, reduced spectators, and fierce competition

The 2020 European Championship Returns with New Rules

After a year-long delay, the 2020 UEFA European Championship is set to kick off what will be the largest international sports tournament to take place since the pandemic.

While the final stage of the tournament typically takes place in one or two nations, this year’s will be played across 11 different countries.

Running from June 11th to July 11th 2021, the opening game between Italy and Turkey will kick off at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, and the final will take place at London’s Wembley Stadium.

COVID-19’s Impact on Teams and Spectators

Aside from the initial year-long delay, COVID-19 has changed how teams and spectators will participate in the tournament.

Squads have been expanded from 23 to 26 players, and coaches will be permitted to call up more players if COVID-19 infections force players into isolation.

For spectators, individual stadiums within host cities have announced varying capacities ranging from 20-100%, with strict stadium entry requirements across the board. Since these capacities are pre-tournament estimates, we’ll have to wait until matchday to see how many ticket-holders are comfortable attending the fixtures in person.

Host Stadium and CitySpectator Capacity
Johann Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam25-45%
Baku Olympic Stadium, Baku50%
Arena Națională, Bucharest25-45%
Puskás Aréna, BudapestAiming for 100%
Parken Stadium, Copenhagen25-45%
Hampden Park, Glasgow25-45%
Wembley Stadium, LondonMinimum of 25%
Football Arena Munich (Allianz Arena), MunichMinimum of 14,500 spectators (~22%)
Stadio Olimpico, Rome25-45%
Estadio La Cartuja, Seville25-45%
Krestovsky Stadium (Gazprom Arena), Saint Petersburg50%

Source: UEFA

More Substitutions and the Video Assistant Referee System

This edition of the tournament will also feature two new rule changes to the action on the field.

Coaches will now be able to make up to five substitutions (six if the match goes to extra time), a change first introduced in domestic leagues to allow players more rest as match calendars became congested.

Another key change which was already in play at the 2018 FIFA World Cup is the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. This system appoints a match official who reviews the head referee’s decisions with video footage, and allows the head referee to conduct an on-field video review and potentially change decisions.

Strong Competition Among Euro 2020’s Favorites

Despite current world champions France remaining as undeniable favorites, bookies are putting England to win the tournament (despite a fairly young squad) partially due to the home field advantage in the semi-finals and final.

Spain, Germany, and Italy remain formidable competitors, and Belgium’s golden generation will have one final shot at silverware after their third place finish at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

European champions Portugal are another obvious threat, as Cristiano Ronaldo will be looking to become the tournament’s top goalscorer of all time (currently tied with Michel Platini at 9 goals).

While the 2020 edition of UEFA’s European Championship features a variety of on-field and off-the-field changes, the trophy truly feels up for grabs and is a welcome return to international football for fans around the world.

»Like this? Then you might enjoy this article, The Top 10 Football Clubs by Market Value

Where does this data come from?

Source: UEFA

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