Infographic: Assessing the Risk of a Greek Default
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Assessing the Risk of a Greek Default

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Assessing the Risk of a Greek Default

Assessing the Risk of a Greek Default

On Friday, April 24th, the finance ministers of Europe will again meet to discuss the fate of Greece’s bailout program. Although no definitive course of action is expected to come out of this meeting, it is yet another chance to assess the potential consequences if indeed the Greek government defaults on its loans.

Greek debt currently sits at 175% of GDP, and there has been a recent flight from Greek bonds. Short-term (3 year) bond yields are at nearly 29%, and standard 10-year bond yields are over 12.5%. Bond analysts are giving Greece a 90% of defaulting on its debt over the next five years, which is up from just 67% on March 1st.

See our Chart of the Week to see how things look for Greece’s debt, and who is on the hook if there is a default.

What happens if Greece defaults? Many expect that it would lead to an exit from the monetary union and that the country would have to return to their previous currency, the drachma.

In such a case, there would be substantial chaos as other European countries own €52.9B of bilateral debt, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) is owed €141.8B in emergency loans, the ECB holds €27B of tradeable bonds, and €67.5B of bonds are held by private investors. It is likely a banking crisis would result, as the web of debt unravels between banks and countries throughout the globe.

Even if Greece doesn’t exit the Eurozone, it will be between a rock and a hard place. With an anti-austerity government in place, the inability to print its own currency, and skyrocketing yields on bonds and confidence, it will be difficult to find a way forward.

For a good overview of how this all started, don’t forget to view this video on the Eurozone Debt Crisis visualized.

Original graphic from: Gainesville Coins

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Agriculture

Charted: U.S. Egg Prices More Than Double in 2022

This chart shows the increase in the national average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in the U.S. in 2022.

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This chart shows the increase in the national average price of a dozen grade-A eggs in the U.S. in 2022.

Charted: U.S. Egg Prices Double in 2022

Eggs are a staple food for many countries around the world, and the U.S. is no exception. Americans eat between 250‒280 eggs a year on average.

Eggs are also easy to cook, protein-dense and supply many daily vitamins needed for healthy living, making them a popular meal or ingredient. So when egg prices rise, people notice.

MetalytIQ charted the rapid rise of egg prices in the U.S. during 2022, using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS).

Eggs-asperating Prices

Over the course of 12 months, the national average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs more than doubled, to $4.25 in December from $1.93 in January.

Egg Prices Per Month (2022)Price per dozen
January$1.30
February$2.10
March$2.50
April$2.52
May$2.86
June$2.71
July$2.94
August$3.12
September$2.90
October$3.42
November$3.59
December$4.25

The biggest culprit has been an avian flu outbreak that resulted in 43 million chickens culled to prevent the spread of the disease.

This led to a severe shortfall in egg supply. Egg inventories in December had fallen by one-third compared to January. Combined with increasing demand during the holiday season, prices skyrocketed and empty shelves became apparent in some states.

This is not the first time avian flu has disrupted the industry.. In 2015, a similar outbreak pushed egg prices up 40% in nine months, reaching a high of $2.97 per dozen eggs in September 2015.

Will Egg Prices Drop in 2023?

Avian flu isn’t the only storm the egg industry has been facing in 2022.

The prices of soybean and corn—the main components of bird feed—account for half of the cost of eggs. They’ve been heavily affected by the war in Ukraine, which has driven grain prices higher.

In the near-term, egg prices are expected to remain high. Containing the avian flu outbreak will remain the biggest factor in determining the prices, but as suppliers increase production, prices may cool off a little in 2023.

Eggs and dairy make up nearly 10% of the average person’s daily calorie intake. Check out the rest of our dietary make-up in Visualizing a Rapidly Changing Global Diet.
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