Markets

Assessing the Risk of a Greek Default

Published

9 years ago

April 23, 2015

Jeff Desjardins

Assessing the Risk of a Greek Default

On Friday, April 24th, the finance ministers of Europe will again meet to discuss the fate of Greece’s bailout program. Although no definitive course of action is expected to come out of this meeting, it is yet another chance to assess the potential consequences if indeed the Greek government defaults on its loans.

Greek debt currently sits at 175% of GDP, and there has been a recent flight from Greek bonds. Short-term (3 year) bond yields are at nearly 29%, and standard 10-year bond yields are over 12.5%. Bond analysts are giving Greece a 90% of defaulting on its debt over the next five years, which is up from just 67% on March 1st.

See our Chart of the Week to see how things look for Greece’s debt, and who is on the hook if there is a default.

What happens if Greece defaults? Many expect that it would lead to an exit from the monetary union and that the country would have to return to their previous currency, the drachma.

In such a case, there would be substantial chaos as other European countries own €52.9B of bilateral debt, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) is owed €141.8B in emergency loans, the ECB holds €27B of tradeable bonds, and €67.5B of bonds are held by private investors. It is likely a banking crisis would result, as the web of debt unravels between banks and countries throughout the globe.

Even if Greece doesn’t exit the Eurozone, it will be between a rock and a hard place. With an anti-austerity government in place, the inability to print its own currency, and skyrocketing yields on bonds and confidence, it will be difficult to find a way forward.

For a good overview of how this all started, don’t forget to view this video on the Eurozone Debt Crisis visualized.

Original graphic from: Gainesville Coins

Markets

U.S. Debt Interest Payments Reach $1 Trillion

U.S. debt interest payments have surged past the $1 trillion dollar mark, amid high interest rates and an ever-expanding debt burden.

Published

4 days ago

April 16, 2024

Niccolo Conte

This line chart shows U.S. debt interest payments over modern history.

U.S. Debt Interest Payments Reach $1 Trillion

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The cost of paying for America’s national debt crossed the $1 trillion dollar mark in 2023, driven by high interest rates and a record $34 trillion mountain of debt.

Over the last decade, U.S. debt interest payments have more than doubled amid vast government spending during the pandemic crisis. As debt payments continue to soar, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that debt servicing costs surpassed defense spending for the first time ever this year.

This graphic shows the sharp rise in U.S. debt payments, based on data from the Federal Reserve.

A $1 Trillion Interest Bill, and Growing

Below, we show how U.S. debt interest payments have risen at a faster pace than at another time in modern history:

Date	Interest Payments	U.S. National Debt
2023	$1.0T	$34.0T
2022	$830B	$31.4T
2021	$612B	$29.6T
2020	$518B	$27.7T
2019	$564B	$23.2T
2018	$571B	$22.0T
2017	$493B	$20.5T
2016	$460B	$20.0T
2015	$435B	$18.9T
2014	$442B	$18.1T
2013	$425B	$17.2T
2012	$417B	$16.4T
2011	$433B	$15.2T
2010	$400B	$14.0T
2009	$354B	$12.3T
2008	$380B	$10.7T
2007	$414B	$9.2T
2006	$387B	$8.7T
2005	$355B	$8.2T
2004	$318B	$7.6T
2003	$294B	$7.0T
2002	$298B	$6.4T
2001	$318B	$5.9T
2000	$353B	$5.7T
1999	$353B	$5.8T
1998	$360B	$5.6T
1997	$368B	$5.5T
1996	$362B	$5.3T
1995	$357B	$5.0T
1994	$334B	$4.8T
1993	$311B	$4.5T
1992	$306B	$4.2T
1991	$308B	$3.8T
1990	$298B	$3.4T
1989	$275B	$3.0T
1988	$254B	$2.7T
1987	$240B	$2.4T
1986	$225B	$2.2T
1985	$219B	$1.9T
1984	$205B	$1.7T
1983	$176B	$1.4T
1982	$157B	$1.2T
1981	$142B	$1.0T
1980	$113B	$930.2B
1979	$96B	$845.1B
1978	$84B	$789.2B
1977	$69B	$718.9B
1976	$61B	$653.5B
1975	$55B	$576.6B
1974	$50B	$492.7B
1973	$45B	$469.1B
1972	$39B	$448.5B
1971	$36B	$424.1B
1970	$35B	$389.2B
1969	$30B	$368.2B
1968	$25B	$358.0B
1967	$23B	$344.7B
1966	$21B	$329.3B

Interest payments represent seasonally adjusted annual rate at the end of Q4.

At current rates, the U.S. national debt is growing by a remarkable $1 trillion about every 100 days, equal to roughly $3.6 trillion per year.

As the national debt has ballooned, debt payments even exceeded Medicaid outlays in 2023—one of the government’s largest expenditures. On average, the U.S. spent more than $2 billion per day on interest costs last year. Going further, the U.S. government is projected to spend a historic $12.4 trillion on interest payments over the next decade, averaging about $37,100 per American.

Exacerbating matters is that the U.S. is running a steep deficit, which stood at $1.1 trillion for the first six months of fiscal 2024. This has accelerated due to the 43% increase in debt servicing costs along with a $31 billion dollar increase in defense spending from a year earlier. Additionally, a $30 billion increase in funding for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in light of the regional banking crisis last year was a major contributor to the deficit increase.

Overall, the CBO forecasts that roughly 75% of the federal deficit’s increase will be due to interest costs by 2034.