Markets

Animation: The Rapidly Aging Western World

Published

5 years ago

November 7, 2017

Jeff Desjardins

From issues such as declining fertility rates to the ongoing complications resulting from China’s famous “One Child Policy”, there are many demographic challenges that the world must grapple with in the coming years.

However, one problem of particular importance – at least in places like Europe and the Americas – is a rapidly aging population. As the population shifts grayer, potential consequences include higher dependency ratios, rising healthcare costs, and shifting economies and cities.

Europe: A Prime Example

We’ve discussed Germany’s demographic cliff before, but it’s not only Germany that will be impacted by a rapidly aging population.

Europe median age

The above animation from data visualization expert Aron Strandberg shows the median age of European countries between 1960 and 2060.

Starting about a decade from now, you can see that the U.N. projects some European countries to start hitting a median age of 50 or higher. This includes countries like Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece, and then later Germany, Poland, Bosnia, and Croatia.

The UK, France, Ireland, Scandinavia, and former Soviet countries will be younger – but only slightly so. Median ages in these places by 2060 will be in the early to mid-forties.

The Americas

Populations in North and South America are also graying fast, though not quite at Europe’s pace.

Here’s a similar map of the Americas that highlights median age between 1960 and 2060, based on U.N. projections.

Americas median age

Chile and Brazil, in particular, are trending older. Meanwhile, Canada is not far behind with an expected median age of 45 in 2060. Interestingly, the United States is anticipated to only hit a median age of 42 by 2060, which is lower than almost all Western countries.

While this makes the U.S. look younger in comparison, the country will still experience the same type of economic burden from an aging population. In fact, it’s expected that the population of Americans older than 65 years will nearly double from 48 million to 88 million over the coming three decades.

Related Topics:demographics united states europe population aging

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Markets

Mapped: 2023 Inflation Forecasts by Country

Inflation surged on a global scale in 2022, hitting record-level highs in many countries. Could it finally subside in 2023?

Published

10 hours ago

February 8, 2023

Selin Oğuz

Mapped: 2023 Inflation Forecasts by Country

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Inflation surged on a global scale in 2022, hitting record-level highs in many countries. Could it finally subside in 2023?

In the above infographic, we look to answer that question using the World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Not Yet Out of the Woods

While the IMF predicts that global inflation peaked in late 2022, rates in 2023 are expected to remain higher than usual in many parts of the world. Following the 8.8% global inflation rate in 2022, the IMF forecasts a 6.6% rate for 2023 and 4.3% rate for 2024 based on their most recent January 2023 update.

For the optimists, the good news is that the double-digit inflation that characterized nearly half the world in 2022 is expected to be less prevalent this year. For the pessimists, on the other hand, looking at countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Turkey, and Poland may suggest that we are far from out of the woods on a global scale.

Here are the countries with the highest forecasted inflation rates in 2023.

Country / Region	Projected Annual Inflation % Change 2023
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe	204.6%
🇻🇪 Venezuela	195.0%
🇸🇩 Sudan	76.9%
🇦🇷 Argentina	76.1%
🇹🇷 Turkiye	51.2%
🇮🇷 Islamic Republic of Iran	40.0%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	29.5%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia	28.6%
🇸🇷 Suriname	27.2%
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone	26.8%
🇸🇸 South Sudan	21.7%
🇭🇹 Haiti	21.2%
🇬🇭 Ghana	20.9%
🇵🇰 Pakistan	19.9%
🇳🇬 Nigeria	17.3%
🇾🇪 Yemen	17.1%
🇲🇼 Malawi	16.5%
🇵🇱 Poland	14.3%
🇲🇩 Moldova	13.8%
🇲🇲 Myanmar	13.3%
🇭🇺 Hungary	13.3%
🇧🇾 Belarus	13.1%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic	12.4%
🇬🇳 Guinea	12.2%
🇲🇳 Mongolia	12.2%
🇪🇬 Egypt	12.0%
🇦🇴 Angola	11.8%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan	11.3%
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe	11.2%
🇷🇴 Romania	11.0%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	10.8%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	10.8%
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan	10.5%
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic	10.1%
🇨🇬 Democratic Republic of the Congo	9.8%
🇿🇲 Zambia	9.6%
🇪🇪 Estonia	9.5%
🇲🇪 Montenegro	9.2%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh	9.1%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom	9.0%

While the above countries fight to sustain their purchasing power, some parts of the world are expected to continue faring exceptionally well against the backdrop of a widespread cost-of-living crisis. Many Asian countries, notably Japan, Taiwan, and China, are all predicted to see inflation lower than 3% in the upcoming year.

When it comes to low inflation, Japan in particular stands out. With strict price controls, negative interest rates, and an aging population, the country is expected to see an inflation rate of just 1.4% in 2023.

Inflation Drivers

While rising food and energy prices accounted for much of the inflation we saw in 2022, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook highlights that core inflation, which excludes food, energy, transport and housing prices, is now also a major driving factor in high inflation rates around the world.

Drivers of Inflation
What makes up core inflation exactly? In this case, it would include things like supply chain cost pressures and the effects of high energy prices slowly trickling down into numerous industries and trends in the labor market, such as the availability of jobs and rising wages. As these macroeconomic factors play out throughout 2023, each can have an effect on inflation.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are also still at play in this year’s inflation forecasts. While the latter mainly played out in China in 2022, the possible resurgence of new variants continues to threaten economic recovery worldwide, and the war persists in leaving a mark internationally.

The confluence of macroeconomic factors currently at play is unlike what we’ve seen in a long time. Though the expertise of forecasters can give us a general understanding, how they will actually play out is for us to wait and see.