Markets
7 Facts That Will Free You From the Fear of Stock Market Crashes
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7 Facts That Will Free You From a Fear of Stock Market Crashes
The current bull market in stocks is closing in on an astounding 10 years in length, making it the longest bull market run in all of modern history.
Largest Bull Markets
Rank | Bull Market | Length |
---|---|---|
#1 | 09’-18’ (Current) | 115 months* |
#2 | ’90-‘00 | 114 months |
#3 | ’49-‘56 | 86 months |
#4 | ’74-‘80 | 74 months |
#5 | ’82-‘87 | 60 months |
*As of September 2018
Understandably, this makes many people very nervous.
Everyone remembers the mayhem of 2008 – and with stock prices at all-time highs, the fear of a market meltdown is a valid concern for many investors.
How to Become Unshakeable
Today’s infographic is from Tony Robbins, leveraging data and talking points from his #1 Best Selling book Unshakeable: Your Financial Freedom Playbook, which is now available on paperback.
It leans on insights from the world’s top investors – like Ray Dalio and John Bogle – to present seven indisputable facts about market crashes, using clear patterns established over decades of data.
By understanding these seven facts, you’ll be able to prepare for the recurring seasons of the financial market, including winter, and it will help give you an enormous edge over even many sophisticated and experienced investors.
Seven Indisputable Facts
Here are the seven facts that will free you from a fear of stock market crashes:
Fact #1: On average, corrections happen once per year
For more than a century, the market has seen close to one correction (a decline of 10% or more) per year. In other words, corrections are a regular part of financial seasons – and you can expect to see as many corrections as birthdays throughout your life.
The average correction looks something like this:
- 54 days long
- 13.5% market decline
- Occurs once per year
The uncertainty of a correction can prompt people to make big mistakes – but in reality, most corrections are over before you know it. If you hold on tight, it’s likely the storm will pass.
Fact #2: Fewer than 20% of all corrections turn into a bear market
When the stock market starts tumbling, it can be tempting to abandon ship by selling assets and moving into cash. However, doing so could be a big mistake.
You would likely be selling all of your assets at a low, right before the market rebounds!
Why? Fewer than 20% of corrections turn into bear markets. Put another way, 80% of corrections are just short breaks in otherwise intact bull markets – meaning that selling early would make you miss the rest of the upward trend.
Fact #3: Nobody can predict consistently whether the market will rise or fall
The media perpetuates a myth that, if you’re smart enough, you can predict the market’s moves and avoid its downdrafts.
But the reality is: no one can time the market.
During the current nine year bull market, there have been dozens of calls for stock market crashes from even very seasoned investors. None of these calls have come true, and if you’d have listened to these experts, you would have missed the upside.
The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.
– Warren Buffett
Fact #4: The market has always risen, despite short-term setbacks
Market drops are a very regular occurrence. For example, the S&P 500 – the main index that tracks the U.S. stock market – has fallen on average 14.2% at least one point each year between 1980-2015.
Like winter, these drops are a part of the market’s seasons. Over this same period of time, despite these temporary drops, the market ended up achieving a positive return 27 of 36 years. That’s 75% of the time!
Fact #5: Historically, bear markets have happened every three to five years
In the 115 year span between 1900-2015, there have been 34 bear markets.
But bear markets don’t last. Over that timeframe, they’ve varied in length from 45 days to 694 days, but on average they lasted about a year.
Fact #6: Bear markets become bull markets
Do you remember how fragile the world seemed in 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall?
When you pictured the future, did it seem dark and dangerous? Or did it seem like the good times were just around the corner and the party was about to begin?
The fact is, once a bear market ends, the following 12 months can see crucial market gains.
The best opportunities come in times of maximum pessimism.
– John Templeton
Fact #7: The greatest danger is being out of the market
From 1996 through 2015, the S&P 500 returned an average of 8.2% a year.
But if you missed out on the top 10 trading days during that period, your returns dwindled to just 4.5% a year.
It gets worse! If you missed out on the top 20 trading days, your returns were just 2.1%.
And if you missed out on the top 30 trading days? Your returns vanished into thin air, falling all the way to zero!
You can’t win by sitting on the bench. You have to be in the game. To put it another way, fear isn’t rewarded. Courage is.
– Tony Robbins
Markets
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.
According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.
This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.
Higher Historical Returns
If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Starting value (February 1989) | $100 | $100 | $100 |
Ending value (February 2024) | $2,162 | $3,276 | $1,764 |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.
This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.
Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps.
Higher Volatility
However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps.
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Volatility | 18.9% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.
Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.
Attractive Valuations
Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.
Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point.
Small Caps/Large Caps | Mid Caps/Large Caps | |
---|---|---|
Relative Forward P/E Ratios | 0.71 | 0.75 |
Discount | 29% | 25% |
Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.
Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.
With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments
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