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$63 Trillion of World Debt in One Visualization

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$63 Trillion of World Debt in One Visualization

$63 Trillion of World Debt in One Visualization

If you add up all the money that national governments have borrowed, it tallies to a hefty $63 trillion.

In an ideal situation, governments are just borrowing this money to cover short-term budget deficits or to finance mission critical projects. However, around the globe, countries have taken to the idea of running constant deficits as the normal course of business, and too much accumulation of debt is not healthy for countries or the global economy as a whole.

The U.S. is a prime example of “debt creep” – the country hasn’t posted an annual budget surplus since 2001, when the federal debt was only $6.9 trillion (54% of GDP). Fast forward to today, and the debt has ballooned to roughly $20 trillion (107% of GDP), which is equal to 31.8% of the world’s sovereign debt nominally.

The World Debt Leaderboard

In today’s infographic, we look at two major measures: (1) Share of global debt as a percentage, and (2) Debt-to-GDP.

Let’s look at the top five “leaders” in each category, starting with share of global debt on a nominal basis:

RankCountriesDebt ($B)% of Global DebtDebt-to-GDP
#1United States$19,94731.8%107.1%
#2Japan$11,81318.8%239.3%
#3China$4,9767.9%44.3%
#4Italy$2,4543.9%132.6%
#5France$2,3753.8%96.3%

Together, just these five countries together hold 66% of the world’s debt in nominal terms – good for a total of $41.6 trillion.

Next, here’s the top five for Debt-to-GDP:

RankCountryDebt ($B)% of Global DebtDebt-to-GDP
#1Japan$11,81318.8%239.3%
#2Greece$3530.6%181.6%
#3Lebanon$750.1%148.7%
#4Italy$2,4543.9%132.6%
#5Portugal$2670.4%130.3%

While only Italy and Japan here are considered major economies on a global scale, the high debt levels of countries like Greece or Portugal are also important to monitor.

In the IMF’s baseline scenario, Greece’s government debt will reach 275% of its GDP by 2060, when its financing needs will represent 62% of GDP.

A recent IMF report, obtained by Bloomberg

Greece, for example, is continuing along a particularly unsustainable path – and external creditors are getting stingier. Most recently, both the IMF and Greece’s euro-area creditors have demanded for the country to implement a law that automatically introduces austerity measures if a budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP isn’t hit.

While Greece has dismissed such demands as “unacceptable”, the country – along with many others around the globe – will have to accept that constant debt accumulation has eventual consequences.

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Markets

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?

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A line chart showing the historical return performance of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks.

 

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments
An infographic comparing low-, mid-, and large-cap stocks, including an area graph showing historical returns, a bubble chart showing how much $100 would be worth over 35 years, a horizontal bar graph showing annualized volatility, and a line graph showing relative forward price-to-earnings ratios, that together show that mid-cap stocks present a compelling investment opportunity.

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.

According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.  

This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.

Higher Historical Returns

If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Starting value (February 1989)$100$100$100
Ending value (February 2024)$2,162$3,276$1,764

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.

This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.

Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps. 

Higher Volatility

However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps. 

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Total Volatility18.9%17.4%14.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.

Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.

Attractive Valuations

Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.

Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point. 

Small Caps/Large CapsMid Caps/Large Caps
Relative Forward P/E Ratios0.710.75
Discount29%25%

Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.

Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.

With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.

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