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5 Big Picture Trends Being Accelerated by the Pandemic

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As every email introduction has reminded us in 2020, we’re living in “unprecedented times”.

No doubt, even after a viable vaccine is released to the general public and things begin to return to some semblance of normalcy, there will be long lasting effects on society and the economy. It’s been said that COVID-19 has hit fast forward on a number of trends, from e-commerce to workplace culture.

Today, we’ll highlight five of these accelerating trends.

The following article uses charts and data from our new book Signals (hardcover, ebook) which covers the 27 macro trends transforming the global economy and markets. In some cases, where appropriate, we’ve added in the most recent projections and data.

#1: Screen Life Takes Hold

Smartphones have drastically altered many parts our lives – including how we spend time. In the decade from 2008 to 2018, screen time on mobile devices increased 12x.

increasing screen time

Fast forward to today, and screen time is up across the board, with some of the most dramatic increases seen among kids and teenagers. 44% of people under the age of 18 now report four hours or more of screen time per day – up from 21% prior to the pandemic.

Gaming is another digital segment that has benefited from the pandemic. Video game revenue spiked in the springtime, and sales have remained strong going further into 2020. Companies are hoping that casual gamers won over during lockdown will continue playing once the pandemic has come to an end.

gaming sales growth

Acceleration signal: International bandwidth and internet traffic was already increasing steadily, but COVID-19 stay-at-home activity has blown away previous numbers.

international internet traffic growth

Even as more workplaces and schools begin to operate normally again, it’s doubtful that screen time will drop back down to pre-COVID levels.

#2: The Big Consumer Shake-Up

The consumer economy has been innovating on two fronts: making physical buying as “frictionless” as possible, and making e-commerce as nimble as possible. COVID-19 broke old habits and sped up that evolution.

Innovations in real world shopping appear to be moving in the direction of cashierless checkouts, but in order for that model to work, people first need to embrace contactless payment methods such as mobile wallets and cards with tap payment.

So far, the pandemic has been an accelerant in moving people away from cash and pin-and-swipe credit cards in lagging markets. Once people get used to the convenience of contactless payments, it’s likely they’ll continue using those methods.

cashierless retail

Of course, no conversation about e-commerce is complete without talking about Amazon. The company has seen consistent growth in subscription revenue in recent years, and the company’s actions have a wide-reaching effect on the rest of the industry.

amazon revenue and speed

Much like the gaming industry, e-commerce companies like Amazon are hoping that people who dabbled with online ordering during the pandemic months, will convert into lifelong customers.

Acceleration signal: E-commerce penetration projections have shifted upward.

ecommerce forecast

In hindsight, 2020 could be an inflection point where e-commerce gained a much bigger slice of the overall retail pie.

#3: Peak Globalization

Globalization went on a tear starting from the mid-1980s until it hit a plateau during the financial crisis. Since that point, global trade as a percentage of GDP has flat-lined in the face of trade wars, and now COVID-19.

globalization plateau chart

Trade was obviously impacted by the pandemic, and it’s too early to say what the long-term effects will be. One thing that is clear is that the information component of globalization is becoming an even more important piece of the world’s economic puzzle.

globalization pillars

Even before COVID-19 took hold, the global services trade was growing 60% faster than the goods trade, and was valued at approximately $13.4 trillion in 2019.

Acceleration signal: The dip in merchandise trade looks eerily similar to the one that took place in 2008.

merchandise trade

#4: The Wealth Chasm

On the high end of the wealth spectrum, billionaires are worth more than ever.

billionaires compared with countries

Meanwhile, in the broader economy, inequality has grown over the last few decades. Those in the top 50% wealth bracket have seen increasing gains, while the bottom 50% have seen stagnation.

This issue is sure to be compounded by economic turmoil brought on by COVID-19. Younger generations face the dual challenges of being more likely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic, while also being the least likely to have savings to cover an interruption in income.

In fact, nearly half of people in the 18–24 year old age group have nothing saved at all.

financial impact of covid-19

The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the more of a wedge will be driven between people who have continued working and those who are employed in impacted industries (e.g. tourism, events).

Acceleration signal: Growth in the net worth of billionaires has been largely unaffected by COVID-19.

billionaire wealth

#5: The Flexible Workplace

As of 2019, over half of companies that didn’t have a flexible or remote workplace policy cited “longstanding company policy” as the reason. In other words, that is just the way things have always worked.

Of course, the pandemic has forced many companies to rethink these policies.

remote work preferences

This grand experiment in remote work and distributed teams will have an impact on office life as we know it, potentially reshaping the entire “office economy”. The impact is already being felt, with global commercial property investment volume falling by 48% in Q3 2020.

Acceleration signal: Thousands of people are moving out of pricey urban areas, presumably because they are able to work remotely from a cheaper location.

migration from urban areas

If you like this post, find hundreds of charts
like this in our new book “Signals”:


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Retail

Visualized: 10 Black Friday Retail Trends

Consumers are expecting more this Black Friday, but for retailers, the pressure is mounting. Here are 10 trends that may impact them in 2023.

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Black Friday trends infographic

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The following content is sponsored by Airwallex

10 Black Friday Retail Trends 

This year, retailers are under major pressure to orchestrate even more substantial and enticing Black Friday discounts for their customers.

We partnered up with Airwallex to visualize the latest available data from 2022 to understand what this year’s holiday weekend could look like for retailers.

Trend 1

Consumer Loyalty and Price

Theme: Buyer Behaviour

In a 2022 U.S. study conducted by Emarsys, 58% of people claim they are more loyal to retailers that offer them discounts, incentives, and rewards, indicating that price plays a crucial role in fostering loyalty.

Moreover, 60% of respondents admitted to turning their back on the brands they were previously loyal to in an effort to save money amid inflation hikes.

Trend 2

Convenience is King

Theme: Buyer Behaviour

Salesforce notes that 2022 saw a global increase of 9% in Buy Online, Pick Up In Store (BOPIS) adoption during Cyber Week compared to early November data.

Specifically in the U.S., retailers offering BOPIS experienced 38% higher growth in online revenue during Cyber Week compared to those without this service.

Trend 3

Global Spending is Up

Theme: Spending Patterns

Globally, 2022 Cyber Week spending increased 2% YoY to $281 billion. This is despite some regions experiencing a decline and some retailers reporting lighter foot traffic.

Trend 4

Margins at Risk

Theme: Spending Patterns

While consumers are spending more, retailers are still seeing their margins squeezed due to a variety of factors such as high inflation, high cost of goods, strained systems, and increased demand for discounts.

That is why we are starting to see certain retailers choosing to “boycott” Black Friday, and although estimates vary, The Guardian reported that as many as 85% of smaller retailers were not participating in Black Friday in 2021.

Trend 5

The Smartphone Surge

Theme: Buyer Behaviour

According to Adobe, 47% of U.S. online sales came from smartphones during the 2022 holiday spending season—up from 43% in 2021.

This reflects a broader trend within the retail sector, aligning with projections for substantial growth in the global mobile commerce market.

Trend 6

Deeper Discounts

Theme: Spending Patterns

In another benefit to consumers, discounts are getting deeper. Throughout the 2022 holiday season, the average discount stood at 21% compared to 19% in 2021 with apparel, skincare, and beauty touting the deepest discounts.

Trend 7

Alternative Payment Options

Theme: Payments

When it comes to payment methods, alternatives such as Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) are gaining traction, as evidenced by a 5% increase in orders YoY.

Trend 8

Financing Lower-Priced Goods

Theme: Payments

Despite the success of Buy Now Pay Later, the average order value decreased 5% YoY, meaning consumers are using the payment method more, but to help finance lower-priced goods.

Trend 9

Sales Spikes in APAC + Europe

Theme: Payments

Even though Black Friday has been traditionally viewed as an American retail phenomenon, it has transcended its U.S. origins and has been embraced by consumers the world over.

Several countries witness significant spikes in online sales in 2022, most notably in Australia with a +239% sales spike, and Spain at +576% spike when compared to average October sales.

Trend 10

Retailers Hit with Hidden Fees

Theme: Payments

Did you know that merchants of all shapes and sizes can often find it hard to escape paying unnecessary transaction fees during the holiday season?

For context, every international dollar a retailer generates during the holiday period could be converted up to three times, costing them up to 5.5% of every transaction.

Black Friday supplemental The Conversion Trap


Considering the multitude of benefits afforded to consumers during Black Friday and the holiday season, the question that looms is: is this retail bonanza genuinely worthwhile for retailers?

By partnering with Airwallex, retailers can simplify global payments, but also capitalise on increased consumer spending—without sacrificing on profit.

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Learn more about Airwallex now.

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