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A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today

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On October 11, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high of 14,198.10 in intraday trading.

At the time, it would have been impossible to know, but such a peak wouldn’t again be matched until 2013, almost six years later. Investors were in for a roller coaster, and a slow and unpredictable recovery – how would their portfolios fare?

Investing at the Market Peak

Hypothetically, let’s say that you bought $1,000 of shares in some of America’s best-known companies, right during these pre-crisis highs in October 2007.

Today’s chart from HowMuch.net shows how you would have fared based on share price alone, not including the re-investment of dividends. Each blue dot below shows the $1,000 investment, and each pink circle represents the value of that investment today.

A Decade Later: What $1,000 Invested in These Companies is Worth Today

If you’d had invested in Netflix around the time company launched its streaming service in the United States, you would have brought in 50X your initial investment.

Meanwhile, Amazon shares jumped over 10X in value, and even “boring” blue chip companies like FedEx or McDonald’s at least doubled in value. The only company worth less (on the above list) is GE, though it’s worth noting that they would have also paid a dividend over this timeframe.

Common Wisdom?

Historically speaking, over long-term windows, the stock market has almost always increased in value. But for people that bought in October 2007, it would have felt like the world was ending and that a recovery was nearly impossible.

While it can certainly be argued that asset prices were inflated through QE, record-low interest rates, and other controversial central bank tactics from the crisis onwards, in hindsight it is also clear that a portfolio formed at the 2007 peak would have turned out alright today.

DJIA

Of course, I think we all would agree that it would have been a lot nicer to invest at rock-bottom prices in 2009. However, it’s nice to know that holding stocks through the crisis ultimately paid off for those that had the patience to do so.

As the current market gets more and more expensive, this may be something worth keeping in mind.

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Markets

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?

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A line chart showing the historical return performance of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks.

 

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments
An infographic comparing low-, mid-, and large-cap stocks, including an area graph showing historical returns, a bubble chart showing how much $100 would be worth over 35 years, a horizontal bar graph showing annualized volatility, and a line graph showing relative forward price-to-earnings ratios, that together show that mid-cap stocks present a compelling investment opportunity.

Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.

According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.  

This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.

Higher Historical Returns

If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Starting value (February 1989)$100$100$100
Ending value (February 2024)$2,162$3,276$1,764

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.

This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.

Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps. 

Higher Volatility

However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps. 

Small CapsMid CapsLarge Caps
Total Volatility18.9%17.4%14.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.

Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.

Attractive Valuations

Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.

Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point. 

Small Caps/Large CapsMid Caps/Large Caps
Relative Forward P/E Ratios0.710.75
Discount29%25%

Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.

Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.

Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks

Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.

With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.

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