Markets
A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today
On October 11, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high of 14,198.10 in intraday trading.
At the time, it would have been impossible to know, but such a peak wouldn’t again be matched until 2013, almost six years later. Investors were in for a roller coaster, and a slow and unpredictable recovery – how would their portfolios fare?
Investing at the Market Peak
Hypothetically, let’s say that you bought $1,000 of shares in some of America’s best-known companies, right during these pre-crisis highs in October 2007.
Today’s chart from HowMuch.net shows how you would have fared based on share price alone, not including the re-investment of dividends. Each blue dot below shows the $1,000 investment, and each pink circle represents the value of that investment today.
If you’d had invested in Netflix around the time company launched its streaming service in the United States, you would have brought in 50X your initial investment.
Meanwhile, Amazon shares jumped over 10X in value, and even “boring” blue chip companies like FedEx or McDonald’s at least doubled in value. The only company worth less (on the above list) is GE, though it’s worth noting that they would have also paid a dividend over this timeframe.
Common Wisdom?
Historically speaking, over long-term windows, the stock market has almost always increased in value. But for people that bought in October 2007, it would have felt like the world was ending and that a recovery was nearly impossible.
While it can certainly be argued that asset prices were inflated through QE, record-low interest rates, and other controversial central bank tactics from the crisis onwards, in hindsight it is also clear that a portfolio formed at the 2007 peak would have turned out alright today.
Of course, I think we all would agree that it would have been a lot nicer to invest at rock-bottom prices in 2009. However, it’s nice to know that holding stocks through the crisis ultimately paid off for those that had the patience to do so.
As the current market gets more and more expensive, this may be something worth keeping in mind.
Economy
Economic Growth Forecasts for G7 and BRICS Countries in 2024
The IMF has released its economic growth forecasts for 2024. How do the G7 and BRICS countries compare?
G7 & BRICS Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2024
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) has released its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2024, and while global growth is projected to stay steady at 3.2%, various major nations are seeing declining forecasts.
This chart visualizes the 2024 real GDP growth forecasts using data from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook for G7 and BRICS member nations along with Saudi Arabia, which is still considering an invitation to join the bloc.
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Mixed Economic Growth Prospects for Major Nations in 2024
Economic growth projections by the IMF for major nations are mixed, with the majority of G7 and BRICS countries forecasted to have slower growth in 2024 compared to 2023.
Only three BRICS-invited or member countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa, have higher projected real GDP growth rates in 2024 than last year.
| Group | Country | Real GDP Growth (2023) | Real GDP Growth (2024P) |
|---|---|---|---|
| G7 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| G7 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| G7 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| G7 | 🇫🇷 France | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| G7 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| G7 | 🇬🇧 UK | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| G7 | 🇩🇪 Germany | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| BRICS | 🇮🇳 India | 7.8% | 6.8% |
| BRICS | 🇨🇳 China | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| BRICS | 🇦🇪 UAE | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| BRICS | 🇮🇷 Iran | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| BRICS | 🇷🇺 Russia | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| BRICS | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| BRICS-invited | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | -0.8% | 2.6% |
| BRICS | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| BRICS | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| BRICS | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 7.2% | 6.2% |
| 🌍 World | 3.2% | 3.2% |
China and India are forecasted to maintain relatively high growth rates in 2024 at 4.6% and 6.8% respectively, but compared to the previous year, China is growing 0.6 percentage points slower while India is an entire percentage point slower.
On the other hand, four G7 nations are set to grow faster than last year, which includes Germany making its comeback from its negative real GDP growth of -0.3% in 2023.
Faster Growth for BRICS than G7 Nations
Despite mostly lower growth forecasts in 2024 compared to 2023, BRICS nations still have a significantly higher average growth forecast at 3.6% compared to the G7 average of 1%.
While the G7 countries’ combined GDP is around $15 trillion greater than the BRICS nations, with continued higher growth rates and the potential to add more members, BRICS looks likely to overtake the G7 in economic size within two decades.
BRICS Expansion Stutters Before October 2024 Summit
BRICS’ recent expansion has stuttered slightly, as Argentina’s newly-elected president Javier Milei declined its invitation and Saudi Arabia clarified that the country is still considering its invitation and has not joined BRICS yet.
Even with these initial growing pains, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor told reporters in February that 34 different countries have submitted applications to join the growing BRICS bloc.
Any changes to the group are likely to be announced leading up to or at the 2024 BRICS summit which takes place October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia.
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