Visualizing the $100 Trillion Global Economy in One Chart
Check out the latest 2023 update of the global economy in one chart.
Surpassing the $100 trillion mark is a new milestone for global economic output.
We’ve covered this topic in the past when the world’s GDP was $88 trillion (2020) and then $94 trillion (2021), and now according to the latest projections, the IMF expects the global economy to reach nearly $104 trillion in nominal value by the end of 2022.
Although growth keeps trending upwards, the recovery that was expected in the post-pandemic period is looking strained. Because of recent conflicts, supply chain bottlenecks, and subsequent inflation, global economic projections are getting revised downwards.
Global annual GDP growth for 2022 was initially projected to be 4.4% as of January, but this has since been adjusted to 3.6%.
Note: This data from the IMF represents the most recent nominal projections for end of year as of April 2022.
The 50 Largest Economies in the World
The United States is still the economic leader worldwide, with a GDP of $25.3 trillion—making up nearly one quarter of the global economy. China follows close behind at $19.9 trillion. Here’s a look at the top 50 countries in terms of GDP:
|Rank||Country||GDP (current prices, USD)|
|#1||🇺🇸 United States||$25.3 trillion|
|#2||🇨🇳 China||$19.9 trillion|
|#3||🇯🇵 Japan||$4.9 trillion|
|#4||🇩🇪 Germany||$4.3 trillion|
|#5||🇬🇧 United Kingdom||$3.4 trillion|
|#6||🇮🇳 India||$3.3 trillion|
|#7||🇫🇷 France||$2.9 trillion|
|#8||🇨🇦 Canada||$2.2 trillion|
|#9||🇮🇹 Italy||$2.1 trillion|
|#10||🇧🇷 Brazil||$1.8 trillion|
|#11||🇷🇺 Russia||$1.8 trillion|
|#12||🇰🇷 South Korea||$1.8 trillion|
|#13||🇦🇺 Australia||$1.7 trillion|
|#14||🇮🇷 Iran||$1.7 trillion|
|#15||🇪🇸 Spain||$1.4 trillion|
|#16||🇲🇽 Mexico||$1.3 trillion|
|#17||🇮🇩 Indonesia||$1.3 trillion|
|#18||🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||$1.0 trillion|
|#19||🇳🇱 Netherlands||$1.0 trillion|
|#20||🇨🇭 Switzerland||$842 billion|
|#21||🇹🇼 Taiwan||$841 billion|
|#22||🇵🇱 Poland||$700 billion|
|#23||🇹🇷 Turkey||$692 billion|
|#24||🇸🇪 Sweden||$621 billion|
|#25||🇧🇪 Belgium||$610 billion|
|#26||🇦🇷 Argentina||$564 billion|
|#27||🇳🇴 Norway||$542 billion|
|#28||🇹🇭 Thailand||$522 billion|
|#29||🇮🇱 Israel||$521 billion|
|#30||🇮🇪 Ireland||$516 billion|
|#31||🇳🇬 Nigeria||$511 billion|
|#32||🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates||$501 billion|
|#33||🇦🇹 Austria||$480 billion|
|#34||🇲🇾 Malaysia||$439 billion|
|#35||🇪🇬 Egypt||$436 billion|
|#36||🇿🇦 South Africa||$426 billion|
|#37||🇸🇬 Singapore||$424 billion|
|#38||🇵🇭 Philippines||$412 billion|
|#39||🇻🇳 Vietnam||$409 billion|
|#40||🇩🇰 Denmark||$399 billion|
|#41||🇧🇩 Bangladesh||$397 billion|
|#42||🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR||$369 billion|
|#43||🇨🇴 Colombia||$351 billion|
|#44||🇨🇱 Chile||$318 billion|
|#45||🇫🇮 Finland||$298 billion|
|#46||🇮🇶 Iraq||$297 billion|
|#47||🇨🇿 Czechia||$296 billion|
|#48||🇷🇴 Romania||$287 billion|
|#49||🇳🇿 New Zealand||$257 billion|
|#50||🇵🇹 Portugal||$252 billion|
The frontrunner in Europe is Germany at $4.3 trillion, with the UK coming in second place. One significant change since the last reported figures is that Brazil now cracks the top 10, having surpassed South Korea. Russia falls just outside, in 11th place, with a GDP of $1.8 trillion.
One region also expected to experience growth in the near future is the Middle East and North Africa, thanks to higher oil prices—Iraq and Saudi Arabia in particular are leading this charge. Regional GDP growth in the area is expected to be around 5% in 2022.
The 50 Smallest Economies in the World
Some of the world’s smallest economies were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, and have subsequently been the most affected by the inflation and food supply shortages resulting from the war in Ukraine.
Here’s a look at the countries worldwide with the lowest GDP in 2022:
|Rank||Country||GDP (current prices, USD)|
|#191||🇹🇻 Tuvalu||$66 million|
|#190||🇳🇷 Nauru||$134 million|
|#189||🇰🇮 Kiribati||$216 million|
|#188||🇵🇼 Palau||$244 million|
|#187||🇲🇭 Marshall Islands||$267 million|
|#186||🇫🇲 Micronesia||$427 million|
|#185||🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe||$1 billion|
|#184||🇹🇴 Tonga||$1 billion|
|#183||🇩🇲 Dominica||$1 billion|
|#182||🇼🇸 Samoa||$1 billion|
|#181||🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines||$1 billion|
|#180||🇻🇺 Vanuatu||$1 billion|
|#179||🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis||$1 billion|
|#178||🇬🇩 Grenada||$1 billion|
|#177||🇰🇲 Comoros||$1 billion|
|#176||🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda||$2 billion|
|#175||🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau||$2 billion|
|#174||🇸🇧 Solomon Islands||$2 billion|
|#173||🇸🇲 San Marino||$2 billion|
|#172||🇸🇨 Seychelles||$2 billion|
|#171||🇹🇱 Timor-Leste||$2 billion|
|#170||🇧🇿 Belize||$2 billion|
|#169||🇨🇻 Cabo Verde||$2 billion|
|#168||🇱🇨 Saint Lucia||$2 billion|
|#167||🇬🇲 The Gambia||$2 billion|
|#166||🇱🇸 Lesotho||$3 billion|
|#165||🇪🇷 Eritrea||$3 billion|
|#164||🇨🇫 Central African Republic||$3 billion|
|#163||🇧🇹 Bhutan||$3 billion|
|#162||🇸🇷 Suriname||$3 billion|
|#161||🇦🇼 Aruba||$3 billion|
|#160||🇦🇩 Andorra||$3 billion|
|#159||🇧🇮 Burundi||$3 billion|
|#158||🇱🇷 Liberia||$4 billion|
|#157||🇩🇯 Djibouti||$4 billion|
|#156||🇸🇱 Sierra Leone||$4 billion|
|#155||🇸🇿 Eswatini||$5 billion|
|#154||🇫🇯 Fiji||$5 billion|
|#153||🇲🇻 Maldives||$6 billion|
|#152||🇧🇧 Barbados||$6 billion|
|#151||🇸🇸 South Sudan||$6 billion|
|#150||🇲🇪 Montenegro||$6 billion|
|#149||🇹🇯 Tajikistan||$8 billion|
|#148||🇸🇴 Somalia||$8 billion|
|#147||🇹🇬 Togo||$9 billion|
|#146||🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan||$9 billion|
|#145||🇲🇷 Mauritania||$9 billion|
|#144||🇽🇰 Kosovo||$10 billion|
|#143||🇲🇺 Mauritius||$11 billion|
|#142||🇲🇼 Malawi||$12 billion|
The smallest economy in the world measured in the IMF rankings is Tuvalu at $66 million. Most of the bottom 50 are considered low- to middle-income and emerging/developing countries. According to the World Bank, in developing countries, the level of per capita income in 2022 will be about 5% below the pre-pandemic trends.
Some countries are actually projected to experience negative GDP growth this year, particularly emerging and developing economies in Europe.
For example, Russia is expected to experience a GDP growth rate of -8.5% in 2022, though it still remains to be seen how the cost of war and increasingly harsh global sanctions impact the country’s economic prospects.
Inflation, Stagflation, Recession – How Bad is it?
While global economic growth has already been revised downwards, it’s possible the situation could be even more serious. Organizations like the World Bank say that risks of stagflation are rising. Stagflation, which hasn’t occurred since the 1970s, is defined as an economy that’s experiencing rising inflation combined with a stagnant economic output.
Currently, global consumer inflation is currently pegged at 7%. Daily goods are becoming increasingly difficult to purchase and interest rates are on the rise as central banks worldwide try to control the situation. As recent events in Sri Lanka demonstrate, low-income countries are particularly at risk to economic volatility.
Recession Risk: Which Sectors are Least Vulnerable?
We show the sectors with the lowest exposure to recession risk—and the factors that drive their performance.
Recession Risk: Which Sectors are Least Vulnerable?
In the context of a potential recession, some sectors may be in better shape than others.
They share several fundamental qualities, including:
- Less cyclical exposure
- Lower rate sensitivity
- Higher cash levels
- Lower capital expenditures
With this in mind, the above chart looks at the sectors most resilient to recession risk and rising costs, using data from Allianz Trade.
Recession Risk, by Sector
As slower growth and rising rates put pressure on corporate margins and the cost of capital, we can see in the table below that this has impacted some sectors more than others in the last year:
|Sector||Margin (p.p. change)
|🏡 Household Equipment||-0.9|
|🚗 Automotive Manufacturers||-1.1|
|🏭 Machinery & Equipment||-1.1|
|🖥️ Computers & Telecom||-2.0|
*Percentage point changes 2021- 2022.
Generally speaking, the retail sector has been shielded from recession risk and higher prices. In 2023, accelerated consumer spending and a strong labor market has supported retail sales, which have trended higher since 2021. Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Sectors including chemicals and pharmaceuticals have traditionally been more resistant to market turbulence, but have fared worse than others more recently.
In theory, sectors including construction, metals, and automotives are often rate-sensitive and have high capital expenditures. Yet, what we have seen in the last year is that many of these sectors have been able to withstand margin pressures fairly well in spite of tightening credit conditions as seen in the table above.
What to Watch: Corporate Margins in Perspective
One salient feature of the current market environment is that corporate profit margins have approached historic highs.
As the above chart shows, after-tax profit margins for non-financial corporations hovered over 14% in 2022, the highest post-WWII. In fact, this trend has been increasing over the past two decades.
According to a recent paper, firms have used their market power to increase prices. As a result, this offset margin pressures, even as sales volume declined.
Overall, we can see that corporate profit margins are higher than pre-pandemic levels. Sectors focused on essential goods to the consumer were able to make price hikes as consumers purchased familiar brands and products.
Adding to stronger margins were demand shocks that stemmed from supply chain disruptions. The auto sector, for example, saw companies raise prices without the fear of diminishing market share. All of these factors have likely built up a buffer to help reduce future recession risk.
Sector Fundamentals Looking Ahead
How are corporate metrics looking in 2023?
In the first quarter of 2023, S&P 500 earnings fell almost 4%. It was the second consecutive quarter of declining earnings for the index. Despite slower growth, the S&P 500 is up roughly 15% from lows seen in October.
Yet according to an April survey from the Bank of America, global fund managers are overwhelmingly bearish, highlighting contradictions in the market.
For health care and utilities sectors, the vast majority of companies in the index are beating revenue estimates in 2023. Over the last 30 years, these defensive sectors have also tended to outperform other sectors during a downturn, along with consumer staples. Investors seek them out due to their strong balance sheets and profitability during market stress.
|S&P 500 Sector||Percent of Companies With Revenues Above Estimates (Q1 2023)|
|Real Estate ||81%|
Cyclical sectors, such as financials and industrials tend to perform worse. We can see this today with turmoil in the banking system, as bank stocks remain sensitive to interest rate hikes. Making matters worse, the spillover from rising rates may still take time to materialize.
Defensive sectors like health care, staples, and utilities could be less vulnerable to recession risk. Lower correlation to economic cycles, lower rate-sensitivity, higher cash buffers, and lower capital expenditures are all key factors that support their resilience.
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