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The $100 Trillion Global Economy in One Chart

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Check out the latest 2023 update of the global economy in one chart.

This infographic visualizes the 100 trillion global economy by country GDP

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Visualizing the $100 Trillion Global Economy in One Chart

Check out the latest 2023 update of the global economy in one chart.

Surpassing the $100 trillion mark is a new milestone for global economic output.

We’ve covered this topic in the past when the world’s GDP was $88 trillion (2020) and then $94 trillion (2021), and now according to the latest projections, the IMF expects the global economy to reach nearly $104 trillion in nominal value by the end of 2022.

Although growth keeps trending upwards, the recovery that was expected in the post-pandemic period is looking strained. Because of recent conflicts, supply chain bottlenecks, and subsequent inflation, global economic projections are getting revised downwards.

Global annual GDP growth for 2022 was initially projected to be 4.4% as of January, but this has since been adjusted to 3.6%.

Note: This data from the IMF represents the most recent nominal projections for end of year as of April 2022.

ℹ️ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a broad indicator of the economic activity within a country. It measures the total value of economic output—goods and services—produced within a given time frame by both the private and public sectors.

The 50 Largest Economies in the World

The United States is still the economic leader worldwide, with a GDP of $25.3 trillion—making up nearly one quarter of the global economy. China follows close behind at $19.9 trillion. Here’s a look at the top 50 countries in terms of GDP:

Rank CountryGDP (current prices, USD)
#1🇺🇸 United States$25.3 trillion
#2🇨🇳 China$19.9 trillion
#3🇯🇵 Japan$4.9 trillion
#4🇩🇪 Germany$4.3 trillion
#5🇬🇧 United Kingdom$3.4 trillion
#6🇮🇳 India$3.3 trillion
#7🇫🇷 France$2.9 trillion
#8🇨🇦 Canada$2.2 trillion
#9🇮🇹 Italy$2.1 trillion
#10🇧🇷 Brazil$1.8 trillion
#11🇷🇺 Russia$1.8 trillion
#12🇰🇷 South Korea$1.8 trillion
#13🇦🇺 Australia$1.7 trillion
#14🇮🇷 Iran$1.7 trillion
#15🇪🇸 Spain$1.4 trillion
#16🇲🇽 Mexico$1.3 trillion
#17🇮🇩 Indonesia$1.3 trillion
#18🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia$1.0 trillion
#19🇳🇱 Netherlands$1.0 trillion
#20🇨🇭 Switzerland$842 billion
#21🇹🇼 Taiwan$841 billion
#22🇵🇱 Poland$700 billion
#23🇹🇷 Turkey$692 billion
#24🇸🇪 Sweden$621 billion
#25🇧🇪 Belgium$610 billion
#26🇦🇷 Argentina$564 billion
#27🇳🇴 Norway$542 billion
#28🇹🇭 Thailand$522 billion
#29🇮🇱 Israel$521 billion
#30🇮🇪 Ireland$516 billion
#31🇳🇬 Nigeria$511 billion
#32🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates$501 billion
#33🇦🇹 Austria$480 billion
#34🇲🇾 Malaysia$439 billion
#35🇪🇬 Egypt$436 billion
#36🇿🇦 South Africa$426 billion
#37🇸🇬 Singapore$424 billion
#38🇵🇭 Philippines$412 billion
#39🇻🇳 Vietnam$409 billion
#40🇩🇰 Denmark$399 billion
#41🇧🇩 Bangladesh$397 billion
#42🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR$369 billion
#43🇨🇴 Colombia$351 billion
#44🇨🇱 Chile$318 billion
#45🇫🇮 Finland$298 billion
#46🇮🇶 Iraq$297 billion
#47🇨🇿 Czechia$296 billion
#48🇷🇴 Romania$287 billion
#49🇳🇿 New Zealand$257 billion
#50🇵🇹 Portugal$252 billion

The frontrunner in Europe is Germany at $4.3 trillion, with the UK coming in second place. One significant change since the last reported figures is that Brazil now cracks the top 10, having surpassed South Korea. Russia falls just outside, in 11th place, with a GDP of $1.8 trillion.

While China’s GDP growth has slowed in recent years, projections still indicate that the country will overtake the U.S. by 2030, dethroning the world’s economic leader.

One region also expected to experience growth in the near future is the Middle East and North Africa, thanks to higher oil prices—Iraq and Saudi Arabia in particular are leading this charge. Regional GDP growth in the area is expected to be around 5% in 2022.

The 50 Smallest Economies in the World

Some of the world’s smallest economies were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, and have subsequently been the most affected by the inflation and food supply shortages resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Here’s a look at the countries worldwide with the lowest GDP in 2022:

Rank CountryGDP (current prices, USD)
#191🇹🇻 Tuvalu$66 million
#190🇳🇷 Nauru$134 million
#189🇰🇮 Kiribati$216 million
#188🇵🇼 Palau$244 million
#187🇲🇭 Marshall Islands$267 million
#186🇫🇲 Micronesia$427 million
#185🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe$1 billion
#184🇹🇴 Tonga$1 billion
#183🇩🇲 Dominica$1 billion
#182🇼🇸 Samoa$1 billion
#181🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines$1 billion
#180🇻🇺 Vanuatu$1 billion
#179🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis$1 billion
#178🇬🇩 Grenada$1 billion
#177🇰🇲 Comoros$1 billion
#176🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda$2 billion
#175🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau$2 billion
#174🇸🇧 Solomon Islands$2 billion
#173🇸🇲 San Marino$2 billion
#172🇸🇨 Seychelles$2 billion
#171🇹🇱 Timor-Leste$2 billion
#170🇧🇿 Belize$2 billion
#169🇨🇻 Cabo Verde$2 billion
#168🇱🇨 Saint Lucia$2 billion
#167🇬🇲 The Gambia$2 billion
#166🇱🇸 Lesotho$3 billion
#165🇪🇷 Eritrea$3 billion
#164🇨🇫 Central African Republic$3 billion
#163🇧🇹 Bhutan$3 billion
#162🇸🇷 Suriname$3 billion
#161🇦🇼 Aruba$3 billion
#160🇦🇩 Andorra$3 billion
#159🇧🇮 Burundi$3 billion
#158🇱🇷 Liberia$4 billion
#157🇩🇯 Djibouti$4 billion
#156🇸🇱 Sierra Leone$4 billion
#155🇸🇿 Eswatini$5 billion
#154🇫🇯 Fiji$5 billion
#153🇲🇻 Maldives$6 billion
#152🇧🇧 Barbados$6 billion
#151🇸🇸 South Sudan$6 billion
#150🇲🇪 Montenegro$6 billion
#149🇹🇯 Tajikistan$8 billion
#148🇸🇴 Somalia$8 billion
#147🇹🇬 Togo$9 billion
#146🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan$9 billion
#145🇲🇷 Mauritania$9 billion
#144🇽🇰 Kosovo$10 billion
#143🇲🇺 Mauritius$11 billion
#142🇲🇼 Malawi$12 billion

The smallest economy in the world measured in the IMF rankings is Tuvalu at $66 million. Most of the bottom 50 are considered low- to middle-income and emerging/developing countries. According to the World Bank, in developing countries, the level of per capita income in 2022 will be about 5% below the pre-pandemic trends.

Some countries are actually projected to experience negative GDP growth this year, particularly emerging and developing economies in Europe.

For example, Russia is expected to experience a GDP growth rate of -8.5% in 2022, though it still remains to be seen how the cost of war and increasingly harsh global sanctions impact the country’s economic prospects.

Inflation, Stagflation, Recession – How Bad is it?

While global economic growth has already been revised downwards, it’s possible the situation could be even more serious. Organizations like the World Bank say that risks of stagflation are rising. Stagflation, which hasn’t occurred since the 1970s, is defined as an economy that’s experiencing rising inflation combined with a stagnant economic output.

Currently, global consumer inflation is currently pegged at 7%. Daily goods are becoming increasingly difficult to purchase and interest rates are on the rise as central banks worldwide try to control the situation. As recent events in Sri Lanka demonstrate, low-income countries are particularly at risk to economic volatility.

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Markets

What History Reveals About Interest Rate Cuts

How have previous cycles of interest rate cuts in the U.S. impacted the economy and financial markets?

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Line chart showing the depth and duration of previous cycles of interest rate cuts.

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

What History Reveals About Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve has overseen seven cycles of interest rate cuts, averaging 26 months and 6.35 percentage points (ppts) each.

We’ve partnered with New York Life Investments to examine the impact of interest rate cut cycles on the economy and on the performance of financial assets in the U.S. to help keep investors informed. 

A Brief History of Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rates are a powerful tool that the central bank can use to spur economic activity. 

Typically, when the economy experiences a slowdown or a recession, the Federal Reserve will respond by cutting interest rates. As a result, each of the previous seven rate cut cycles—shown in the table below—occurred during or around U.S. recessions, according to data from the Federal Reserve. 

Interest Rate Cut CycleMagnitude (ppts)
July 2019–April 2020-2.4
July 2007–December 2008-5.1
November 2000–July 2003-5.5
May 1989–December 1992-6.9
August 1984–October 1986-5.8
July 1981–February 1983-10.5
July 1974–January 1977-8.3
Average-6.4

Source: Federal Reserve 07/03/2024

Understanding past economic and financial impacts of interest rate cuts can help investors prepare for future monetary policy changes.

The Economic Response: Inflation

During past cycles, data from the Federal Reserve, shows that, on average, the inflation rate continued to decline throughout (-3.4 percentage points), largely due to the lagged effects of a slower economy that normally precedes interest rate declines. 

CycleStart to end change (ppts)End to one year later (ppts)
July 2019–April 2020-1.5+3.8
July 2007–December 2008-2.3+2.6
November 2000–July 2003-1.3+0.9
May 1989–December 1992-2.5-0.2
August 1984–October 1986-2.8+3.1
July 1981–February 1983-7.3+1.1
July 1974–January 1977-6.3+1.6
Average-3.4+1.9

Source: Federal Reserve 07/03/2024. Based on the effective federal funds rate. Calculations are based on the previous four rate cut cycles (2019-2020, 2007-2008, 2000-2003, 1989-1992, 1984-1986, 1981-1983, 1974-1977).

However, inflation played catch-up and rose by +1.9 percentage points one year after the final rate cut. With lower interest rates, consumers were incentivized to spend more and save less, which led to an uptick in the price of goods and services in six of the past seven cycles. 

The Economic Response: Real Consumer Spending Growth

Real consumer spending growth, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, typically reacted to rate cuts more quickly. 

On average, consumption growth rose slightly during the rate cut periods (+0.3 percentage points) and that increase accelerated one year later (+1.7 percentage points). 

CycleStart to end (ppts)End to one year later (ppts)
July 2019–April 2020-9.6+15.3
July 2007–December 2008-4.6+3.1
November 2000–July 2003+0.8-2.5
May 1989–December 1992+3.0-1.3
August 1984–October 1986+1.6-2.7
July 1981–February 1983+7.2-0.7
July 1974–January 1977+3.9+0.9
Average+0.3+1.7

Source: BEA 07/03/2024. Quarterly data. Consumer spending growth is based on the percent change from the preceding quarter in real personal consumption expenditures, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Percent changes at annual rates were then used to calculate the change in growth over rate cut cycles. Data from the last full quarter before the date in question was used for calculations. Calculations are based on the previous four rate cut cycles (2019-2020, 2007-2008, 2000-2003, 1989-1992, 1984-1986, 1981-1983, 1974-1977).

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis were outliers. Spending continued to fall during the rate cut cycles but picked up one year later.

The Investment Response: Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate

Historically, the trend in financial asset performance differed between stocks, bonds, and real estate both during and after interest rate declines.

Stocks and real estate posted negative returns during the cutting phases, with stocks taking the bigger hit. Conversely, bonds, a traditional safe haven, gained ground. 

AssetDuring (%)1 Quarter After (%)2 Quarters After (%)4 Quarters After (%)
Stocks-6.0+18.2+19.4+23.9
Bonds+6.3+15.3+15.1+10.9
Real Estate-4.8+25.5+15.6+25.5

Source: Yahoo Finance, Federal Reserve, NAREIT 09/04/2024. The S&P 500 total return index was used to track performance of stocks. The ICE Corporate Bonds total return index was used to track the performance of bonds. The NAREIT All Equity REITs total return index was used to track the performance of real estate. Calculations are based on the previous four rate cut cycles (2019-2020, 2007-2008, 2000-2003, 1989-1992). It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index definitions can be found at the end of this piece.

However, in the quarters preceding the last rate cut, all three assets increased in value. One year later, real estate had the highest average performance, followed closely by stocks, with bonds coming in third.

What’s Next for Interest Rates

In March 2024, the Federal Reserve released its Summary of Economic Projections outlining its expectation that U.S. interest rates will fall steadily in 2024 and beyond.

YearRange (%)Median (%)
Current5.25-5.505.375
20244.50-4.754.625
20253.75-4.03.875
20263.00-3.253.125
Longer run2.50-2.752.625

Source: Federal Reserve 20/03/2024

Though the timing of interest rate cuts is uncertain, being armed with the knowledge of their impact on the economy and financial markets can provide valuable insight to investors. 

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