Markets
Three Megatrends Dominating Global Real Estate Investment
The below infographic captures three megatrends that are the driving forces behind global real estate investment.
Three Megatrends Dominating Global Real Estate Investment
According to CBRE, the world’s largest real estate investment manager, the three trends driving the commercial real estate market can be summed up as the following:
1. Globalization
There’s $1.1 trillion expected to flow into commercial real estate in 2016, and much of that money will be stemming from international sources.
World-class cities are seeing more outside capital for all types of real estate. Take London for example, where 60% of commercial real estate has been bought by international investors over the last 10 years.
How can investors make this trend their friend? By looking for opportunities to diversify real estate portfolios across a broader mix of geographies and asset types, and by thinking globally while developing strong knowledge of local markets before investing.
2. Demographics
The world is shifting fast as far as demographics go.
Western countries will be welcoming many more retirees to their ranks. Meanwhile, the middle class in Asia will explode in growth. Once just 500 million people in 2009, it will be 3.3 billion by 2030 – accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global middle class.
Where will these people live?
Cities. About 50 megacities will account for the vast majority of economic activity. (See which megacities are growing the fastest here)
Look at investing in emerging markets that have a rapidly expanding middle class, and look for opportunities to capitalize on areas with large retiree populations.
3. Technology
Lastly, as technology becomes more ubiquitous, it will have an impact on real estate markets from several angles.
The amount of tech workers grew 61% between 2010 and 2013 among the top 15 urban centers. Also, driverless cars will also have widespread market penetration by 2029, and this will reshape and re-map entire communities.
Explore emerging technology hubs for real estate opportunities, and look for opportunities in urban-adjacent industrial properties as businesses establish distribution centers near cities to reduce the costs of delivery.
Markets
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.
According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps. Â
This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.
Higher Historical Returns
If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Starting value (February 1989) | $100 | $100 | $100 |
Ending value (February 2024) | $2,162 | $3,276 | $1,764 |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.
This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.
Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps.Â
Higher Volatility
However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps.Â
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Volatility | 18.9% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.
Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.
Attractive Valuations
Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.
Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point.Â
Small Caps/Large Caps | Mid Caps/Large Caps | |
---|---|---|
Relative Forward P/E Ratios | 0.71 | 0.75 |
Discount | 29% | 25% |
Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.
Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.
With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments
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