Markets
Over the Next Year, Germany Will Hit a Scary Demographic Milestone
In Europe, the economy is humming along at its fastest pace in 10 years.
According to the European Central Bank, the most recent forecast for the eurozone pegs growth at 2.3% for the year ahead, a significant upgrade from the central bank’s previous estimate of 1.8%.
But as Europe regains its economic mojo, a key part of the machine is seeing demographic reality take shape.
A Scary Milestone
It’s been no secret that Germany, which has a reputation as the economic engine of Europe, is in a troubling demographic predicament. With one of the oldest populations in Europe, and a low fertility rate of just 1.5 births per woman, it is only a matter of time before the rubber hits the road to affect growth in the country.
That time may be finally creeping in, and the country is poised to hit a dubious milestone in the next year that really crystallizes concerns around the demographic composition of Germany’s population.
By 2019, there will be fewer Germans under 30 years old than there are Germans that are 60+ years:
This ratio is certainly extreme on a global level – after all, 24.4% of the world population is under the age of 14, and only 12.3% is older than 60 years.
However, it’s also pretty extreme in comparison to other developed countries. The U.N., for example, recently estimated that the 60 and older population made up an average of 22.1% of the total for all high-income countries.
Conversely, the last time the 60+ group made up the same proportion in the German economy was in 1997.
A Closer Look at Germany
For a closer look at this trend, here’s an animated and interactive chart of Germany’s population pyramid. Notice that by 2020, the shape starts to represent the negative population growth pattern that we showcased in a previous post.
Use the “lock” button to save an imprint of particular year, and then use the play button to animate future years.
Visualizing Negative Growth
With more people in the 60+ age bracket than in the younger generation, it’s inevitably a prelude to population decline in the native population.
Here is this negative growth projection shown, using a more conventional graph:
Based on these United Nations projections, the German population is likely to decline by over 10 million people as we move towards the end of the 21st century.
This is a stark contrast to other parts of the world, such as the booming megacities in Asia and Africa, that will soon dominate the world’s future demographic landscape.
Markets
Will Tesla Lose Its Spot in the Magnificent Seven?
We visualize the recent performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, uncovering a clear divergence between the group’s top and bottom names.
Will Tesla Lose Its Spot in the Magnificent Seven?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
In this graphic, we visualize the year-to-date (YTD) performance of the “Magnificent Seven”, a leading group of U.S. tech stocks that gained prominence in 2023 as the replacement of FAANG stocks.
All figures are as of March 12, 2024, and are listed in the table below.
Rank | Company | YTD Change (%) |
---|---|---|
1 | Nvidia | 90.8 |
2 | Meta | 44.3 |
3 | Amazon | 16.9 |
4 | Microsoft | 12 |
5 | 0.2 | |
6 | Apple | -6.7 |
7 | Tesla | -28.5 |
From these numbers, we can see a clear divergence in performance across the group.
Nvidia and Meta Lead
Nvidia is the main hero of this show, setting new all-time highs seemingly every week. The chipmaker is currently the world’s third most valuable company, with a valuation of around $2.2 trillion. This puts it very close to Apple, which is currently valued at $2.7 trillion.
The second best performer of the Magnificent Seven has been Meta, which recently re-entered the trillion dollar club after falling out of favor in 2022. The company saw a massive one-day gain of $197 billion on Feb 2, 2024.
Apple and Tesla in the Red
Tesla has lost over a quarter of its value YTD as EV hype continues to fizzle out. Other pure play EV stocks like Rivian and Lucid are also down significantly in 2024.
Meanwhile, Apple shares have struggled due to weakening demand for its products in China, as well as the company’s lack of progress in the artificial intelligence (AI) space.
Investors may have also been disappointed to hear that Apple’s electric car project, which started a decade ago, has been scrapped.
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