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Extreme Water Shortages are Expected to Hit These Countries by 2040

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The commodity markets have taken a pounding over the last few years, but there is one invaluable commodity that is getting a higher profile these days. While you may be able to get it right out of your kitchen sink, there are many places in the world that may not be so lucky. For this reason, some have speculated that we may be on the path to peak water.

Based on recent data from the World Resources Institute, here are the countries that are expected to get hit the hardest by water shortages in the coming decades:

Water Shortage Stress Map

The report notes that more people continue to move to cities and that this can put stress on the established water supply. Combine this with growing population and consumption, and some regions will struggle more than others to replenish water when it is needed. Circumstances are also exacerbated by changing climates: some areas that are wet are becoming drier, and vice versa.

A total of 167 countries were examined for “water stress” which is considered by the report as a combination of depletion and competition for surface water. Of the nations examined, there are 33 countries that are expected to have extremely high water stress by 2040. Here’s some that will feel it the most:

Water Shortage Stress by Country

In particular, life will not get any easier in the Middle East: 14 of the 33 countries with extremely high water stress are in the region. Nine of those countries scored a five out of five for water stress: Bahrain, Kuwait, Palestine, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Lebanon. The Middle East relies heavily on groundwater and desalinated sea water, and such ongoing water challenges could amplify volatility in the area.

The largest economies in the world, such as the United States, China and India, will also face stress in particular regions. For example, WRI notes that the southwestern United States and China’s Ningxia province could see water stress levels rise 40% to 70%.

Here’s a previous map we have shown that covers water withdrawals and deliveries in the United States:

Water Use in the United States

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How Carbon Dioxide Removal is Critical to a Net-Zero Future

Here’s how carbon dioxide removal methods could help us meet net-zero targets and and stabilize the climate.

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Teaser image for a post on the importance of carbon dioxide removal in the push for a net-zero future.

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The following content is sponsored by Carbon Streaming

How Carbon Dioxide Removal is Critical to a Net-Zero Future

Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals and avoiding the worst consequences of a warming world requires first and foremost emission reductions, but also the ongoing direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.

We’ve partnered with Carbon Streaming to take a deep look at carbon dioxide removal methods, and the role that they could play in a net-zero future. 

What is Carbon Dioxide Removal?

Carbon Dioxide Removal, or CDR, is the direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and its durable storage in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. 

And according to the UN Environment Programme, all least-cost pathways to net zero that are consistent with the Paris Agreement have some role for CDR. In a 1.5°C scenario, in addition to emissions reductions, CDR will need to pull an estimated 3.8 GtCO2e p.a. out of the atmosphere by 2035 and 9.2 GtCO2e p.a. by 2050.

The ‘net’ in net zero is an important quantifier here, because there will be some sectors that can’t decarbonize, especially in the near term. This includes things like shipping and concrete production, where there are limited commercially viable alternatives to fossil fuels.

Not All CDR is Created Equal

There are a whole host of proposed ways for removing CO2 from the atmosphere at scale, which can be divided into land-based and novel methods, and each with their own pros and cons. 

Land-based methods, like afforestation and reforestation and soil carbon sequestration, tend to be the cheapest options, but don’t tend to store the carbon for very long—just decades to centuries. 

In fact, afforestation and reforestation—basically planting lots of trees—is already being done around the world and in 2020, was responsible for removing around 2 GtCO2e. And while it is tempting to think that we can plant our way out of climate change, think that the U.S. would need to plant a forest the size of New Mexico every year to cancel out their emissions.

On the other hand, novel methods like enhanced weathering and direct air carbon capture and storage, because they store carbon in minerals and geological reservoirs, can keep carbon sequestered for tens of thousand years or longer. The trade off is that these methods can be very expensive—between $100-500 and north of $800 per metric ton

CDR Has a Critical Role to Play

In the end, there is no silver bullet, and given that 2023 was the hottest year on record—1.45°C above pre-industrial levels—it’s likely that many different CDR methods will end up playing a part, depending on local circumstances. 

And not just in the drive to net zero, but also in the years after 2050, as we begin to stabilize global average temperatures and gradually return them to pre-industrial norms. 

Carbon Streaming uses carbon credit streams to finance CDR projects, such as reforestation and biochar, to accelerate a net-zero future.

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Learn more about Carbon Streaming’s CDR projects.

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