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A Crude Problem For Putin’s Russia

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Russian History and Oil Prices

A Crude Problem For Putin’s Russia

Western sanctions against Russia that stemmed from the events in Ukraine have not yet put a significant dent in the country’s economy or changed their plans abroad. However, over the last three months, the slumping price of crude oil may be the factor that finally makes Moscow blink.

While Brent oil has traded throughout the year at around $110/bbl, it is only recently that the price has dropped to closer to $85. A combination of items have contributed to crude’s steep drop including a stronger US dollar, slowed economic growth in Europe and China, and increased US shale oil and gas production.

Some countries benefit from having oil as a cheaper input, but Russia is not one of them. Russia is the second largest exporter of oil selling 7.2 million bpd in global markets, which equates to about 45% of Russia’s budget revenues. Deutche Bank has calculated the breakeven price for Russia’s fiscal situation at an oil price at $102/bbl.

Oil prices and deficits for selected countries including Russia

The impact of this is already showing up in the Kremlin’s finances. Not only does Russia forgo extra revenue towards its budget, but it also hurts the exchange rate of the country’s currency. So far this month, Russia has spent upwards of $7 billion propping up the rouble, which is trading at record lows.

A previous crash in oil prices in the 1980s was at least partly responsible for bankrupting the Soviet Union, and this time the stakes could also be high. Putin’s support will stay high as long as business is good and the country keeps its pro-Russia stance. However, it remains to be seen what kind of pressure that a more long-term low oil environment will put on Putin and his administration.

Opening graphic from: RadioFreeEurope

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Energy

How Much Does the U.S. Depend on Russian Uranium?

Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the U.S.

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Voronoi graphic visualizing U.S. reliance on Russian uranium

How Much Does the U.S. Depend on Russian Uranium?

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email.

The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a ban on imports of Russian uranium. The bill must pass the Senate before becoming law.

In this graphic, we visualize how much the U.S. relies on Russian uranium, based on data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. Suppliers of Enriched Uranium

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian-produced oil and gas—yet Russian-enriched uranium is still being imported.

Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the United States. In 2022, Russia supplied almost a quarter of the enriched uranium used to fuel America’s fleet of more than 90 commercial reactors.

Country of enrichment serviceSWU%
🇺🇸 United States3,87627.34%
🇷🇺 Russia3,40924.04%
🇩🇪 Germany1,76312.40%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom1,59311.23%
🇳🇱 Netherlands1,3039.20%
Other2,23215.79%
Total14,176100%

SWU stands for “Separative Work Unit” in the uranium industry. It is a measure of the amount of work required to separate isotopes of uranium during the enrichment process. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Most of the remaining uranium is imported from European countries, while another portion is produced by a British-Dutch-German consortium operating in the United States called Urenco.

Similarly, nearly a dozen countries around the world depend on Russia for more than half of their enriched uranium—and many of them are NATO-allied members and allies of Ukraine.

In 2023 alone, the U.S. nuclear industry paid over $800 million to Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, and its fuel subsidiaries.

It is important to note that 19% of electricity in the U.S. is powered by nuclear plants.

The dependency on Russian fuels dates back to the 1990s when the United States turned away from its own enrichment capabilities in favor of using down-blended stocks of Soviet-era weapons-grade uranium.

As part of the new uranium-ban bill, the Biden administration plans to allocate $2.2 billion for the expansion of uranium enrichment facilities in the United States.

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