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Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]

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Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]

Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]

SocGen’s latest evaluation still sees steep downside risk to market

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Société Générale has come out with their most recent list of what the bank considers to be potential “black swans” to the market.

France’s third largest bank publishes this list as part of their Global Economic Outlook. As several users have pointed out in the past, we are indeed aware that black swans are by nature unlikely and extremely difficult to predict. We agree with this, but we do find SocGen’s list a useful way of understanding some of the upcoming risks in the market that could sway investor sentiment and opinion.

In the latest edition of the report, which was published this week, the bank still sees an excess of potential downside risks to the global economy. The greatest of these risks, slated at only a 10% probability but with maximum impact potential, is a new global recession. The report mentions as well that a hard landing in China could have similar effects.

Downside risks and their probability:

  • 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU (Impact: low)
  • 30% – China’s economy has a hard landing (Impact: high)
  • 25% – U.S. consumers save more than expected (Impact: medium)
  • 10% – Fed hikes too late (Impact: medium to high)
  • 10% – New global recession (Impact: high)

Upside risks and their probability:

  • 20% – Stronger investment and trade (Impact: medium to high)
  • 15% – More fiscal accommodation (Impact: medium)
  • 10% – Fast track reform (Impact: low)

One risk that could be added to the mix is some sort of a deflationary spiral. These are words that no central banker wants to hear, but signs of deflation are popping up all over the market. For example, as we showed in a recent chart, nearly all commodities got hammered over 2015.

The impact of such a spiral would be catastrophic, and the Fed has limited means to combat such an event. That said, it is tough to discern whether deflation will continue to be found sprinkled benignly throughout the economy, or if it could somehow snowball into the full-on death spiral.

Black swan indeed.

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Markets

The Most Popular TV Brands in the U.S.

Korean brands dominate the U.S. TV market.

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A stacked bar chart ranking the most popular TV brands in the U.S.

The Most Popular TV Brands in the U.S.

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Every year, over 40 million TVs are sold in the U.S., making the device a flagship technology in many American homes.

In this graphic, we illustrate the most popular TV brands in the U.S. based on a 2023 Statista survey of over 8,000 American adults. Respondents were asked, ‘What brand is your main TV?’

Korean Brands Dominate the U.S. TV Market

Samsung and LG combined account for 52% of the TV market share. Interestingly, the two firms have a partnership in place, with LG supplying OLED TV panels to Samsung since 2023.

TV BrandCountry% of Respondents
Samsung🇰🇷 South Korea33
LG🇰🇷 South Korea19
Vizio🇺🇸 U.S.11
Sony🇯🇵 Japan7
Hisense🇨🇳 China5
TCL🇨🇳 China5
Philips🇳🇱 Netherlands3
Insignia🇺🇸 U.S.2
Sanyo🇯🇵 Japan2
Toshiba🇯🇵 Japan2
Sharp🇯🇵 Japan1
Other or don't know--9

Vizio, a California-based company, holds the third position, but its TVs aren’t manufactured in the United States. Rather, they are produced by Taiwanese companies AmTran Technology and Foxconn, the latter being a major manufacturer of the iPhone.

Further down the ranking is Insignia, owned by U.S. retailer Best Buy. While it’s uncertain who produces Insignia TVs, some speculate they’re made by China’s Hisense.

Despite holding the largest market share, South Korea ranks behind Japan in terms of the number of companies among the top brands. Japan boasts four brands on our list, with Sony ranked 4th overall, capturing 7% of the responses.

Growing Market

The U.S. is witnessing a surge in demand for high-definition televisions, driven by consumers’ desire for a more immersive home viewing experience.

Globally, the U.S. leads in revenue generation, with the American TV market projected to generate $18.2 billion in revenue in 2024.

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