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The World’s Biggest Real Estate Bubbles in 2018

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Note: Cities with a “Bubble Risk” (>1.5) are shown in red

The World's Biggest Real Estate Bubbles in 2018

Courtesy: UBS

The World’s Biggest Real Estate Bubbles in 2018

With the current stock market bull run reaching nearly 10 years in length, it’s understandable that many investors are nervous about the end of the party coming sooner than later.

However, as UBS notes in its latest report, there is also growing concern about another prominent bubble that’s been in the works since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Large amounts of easy money have fueled real estate bubbles in the world’s major cities – and the Swiss investment bank now sees the property markets in six global cities as being at risk.

The Bubble Index

In the 2018 edition of the bank’s Real Estate Bubble Index, here are the major cities around the globe that are in or near bubble territory:

The biggest real estate bubbles

Any city with a score over 1.5 is considered at “Bubble Risk”, and right now those include two cities from Canada, one from Asia, and three from Europe.

Hong Kong (2.03) tops the index this year, leaping past Munich (1.99), Toronto (1.95), and Vancouver (1.92) which all remain at bubble risk themselves. Amsterdam and London are the two other cities that score higher than a 1.5 on the rankings.

It’s also very important to note that there are four cities that score just under the 1.5 threshold: Stockholm (1.45), Paris (1.44), San Francisco (1.44), and Frankfurt (1.43).

A Coming Correction?

Investor and writer Howard Marks has noted in recent months that the wider market is in its “8th inning”, and the same case could be made for real estate.

Historically, investors have had to be alert to rising interest rates, which have served as the main trigger of corrections.

– UBS Report

According to UBS, the cracks are already starting to show at the top end of the market, with housing prices declining in half of last year’s list of bubble cities. Some of the worrying factors include rising interest rates, as well as growing political tensions as the crisis of affordability makes it harder for average people to live in these global financial centers.

Here is annualized growth in percent over the last year, as well for the last five years for cities in the index:

Real estate bubbles and their growth rates

As you can see, some of these cities have had negative growth over the last 12 months, including New York, Toronto, Sydney, London, and Stockholm.

Charting Specific Markets

In Hong Kong, you need to work 22 years to afford a 645 sq. ft (60m²) apartment, when that took just 12 years just a decade ago. In recent years, Hong Kong’s ascent to becoming one of the biggest real estate bubbles has become very evident, especially when juxtaposed with Singapore:

Hong Kong

In Canada, the two cities in the index are starting to go in alternate directions, although recent signs also point to a potential slowdown in Vancouver:

Vancouver and Toronto

Finally, the U.S. market – which felt the pain of the housing crash in the late 2000s – is home to zero cities in the bubble risk category, according to UBS.

American cities

Whether it is a bubble or not, many people agree that San Francisco’s housing situation is still a crisis. In the Bay Area hub, 60% of all rental units are in rental-controlled buildings, and the median single-family house price is a hefty $1.7 million.

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Markets

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each U.S. State

Canada is the top destination for products from 21 states.

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Graphic showing product categories each state exports worldwide.

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each State

The U.S. is the second biggest exporter in the world, accounting for over 8% of global exports.

In this graphic by NeoMam Studios, we analyze the primary product exported by each state, as well as its main destination, utilizing data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.

Canada: The Primary Destination

Canada serves as the largest export market for most of the Midwest, while Mexico holds the top spot as the export destination for much of the Southwest and Southeast. Additionally, Canada stands out as the primary importer of products from 21 states, with China and Germany trailing behind as notable destinations.

StateDestinationTop Product ExportedValue (USD)
Alabama🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,649M
Alaska🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$576M
Arizona🇲🇽 MexicoMinerals$1,760M
Arkansas🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$246M
California🇨🇦 CanadaComputer & Electronics$5,093M
Colorado🇰🇷 South KoreaProcessed Foods$545M
Connecticut🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$1,581M
Delaware🇰🇷 South KoreaAppliances$419M
Florida🇬🇧 UKChemicals$2,447M
Georgia🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,629M
Hawaii🇭🇰 Hong KongTransportation equip.$68M
Idaho🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$394M
Illinois🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$4,517M
Indiana🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$6,561M
Iowa🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,598M
Kansas🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$1,543M
Kentucky🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$3,630M
Louisiana🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural$11,300M
Maine🇨🇦 CanadaOil & Gas$504M
Maryland🇫🇷 FranceTransportation equip.$949M
Massachusetts🇨🇳 ChinaMachinery$1,298M
Michigan🇨🇳 ChinaTransportation equip.$15,361M
Minnesota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$2,787M
Mississippi🇵🇦 PanamaPetroleum & Coal$2,106M
Missouri🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,390M
Montana🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$153M
Nebraska🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$933M
Nevada🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal$1,399M
New Hampshire🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$695M
New Jersey🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,734M
New Mexico🇲🇽 MexicoComputer & Electronics$2,014M
New York🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal $18,262M
North Carolina🇨🇳 ChinaChemicals$4,312M
North Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$1,441M
Ohio🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$5,990M
Oklahoma🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$418M
Oregon🇨🇳 ChinaComputer & Electronics$6,261M
Pennsylvania🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,280M
Rhode Island🇮🇹 ItalyWaste & Scrap$321M
South Carolina🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,774M
South Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$297M
Tennessee🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,017M
Texas🇲🇽 MexicoPetroleum & Coal $33,627M
Utah🇬🇧 UKMetal $6,805M
Vermont🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$447M
Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$1,799M
Washington🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural $10,553M
West Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$657M
Wisconsin🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,802M
Wyoming🇮🇩 IndonesiaChemicals$200M

When it comes to the types of exports, transportation equipment emerges as the primary source for the majority of states, with minerals and ores, chemicals, and computer and electronics following closely behind.

For instance, North Carolina ships $4.3 billion worth of chemicals to China, marking one of the longest-distance trade flows among states. Meanwhile, Florida boasts one of the most diverse export portfolios, engaging in trade with Europe, South America, and the Caribbean.

Louisiana heavily relies on the export of agricultural products to China, which contributes significantly to its total GDP. Similarly, Michigan’s transportation equipment exports to Canada constitute a noteworthy portion of the state’s GDP.

In Oregon, exports of semiconductors and other computer parts to China, driven by companies like Intel and Micron, play a crucial role in the state’s economy. Meanwhile, Utah predominantly exports primary metal manufacturing goods to the United Kingdom.

The biggest exporter in the country, Texas, sees a significant portion of its GDP attributed to exports to Mexico, further underlining the state’s economic ties with its southern neighbor.

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